News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.17% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.14% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.05% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.08% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.13% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.38% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/cSsg7l8b4x
  • Indices Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.05% Wall Street: 0.01% US 500: 0.01% France 40: -0.02% FTSE 100: -0.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/CyoJBdYbGT
  • Commodities Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.01% Silver: -0.22% Oil - US Crude: -0.93% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/cZeVIxiAJm
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.32%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 75.03%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/fmCBX0W0w3
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.07% Silver: -0.21% Oil - US Crude: -0.93% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/MBlfthkrSp
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due at 15:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-26
  • What are some key influences Black Friday has on the economy and stock markets? Find out: https://t.co/KIsvaIWZDN https://t.co/NS7o4MrEok
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.06% US 500: 0.04% Wall Street: 0.01% France 40: -0.03% FTSE 100: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/zTLPlL868T
  • 🇨🇦 Average Weekly Earnings YoY (SEP) Actual: 6.9% Previous: 7.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-26
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.45%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 74.75%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/rb0KHIpnDO
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Key Levels, Risk of Setback

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Key Levels, Risk of Setback

2020-10-22 09:35:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Price Analysis & News

  • EUR/USD Driven to Rich Levels by Chinese Yuan
  • EUR/JPY Vulnerable to Setback Towards 123.00
Advertisement

This week has seen a remarkably firm Euro as markets continued to price in a democrat sweep, which has largely been characterised by short USD trades. However, aside from the US election, factors that had supported the Euro have begun to the fade with headwinds facing the currency beginning to rise. That said, this hasn’t entirely been reflected in the price with the Euro trading at 1-month highs.

Reasons for Concern in the Euro

Interest rate differentials have been moving in favour of the USD since August with the 10yr spread widening more aggressively since the back end of September. Alongside this, as inflation risks for the Eurozone remain heavily tilted to the downside, expectations are being built in the that the ECB could look for a fresh round of stimulus by the end of the year. As such, focus will be on next week’s ECB meeting, which may lay the groundwork for policy action in December.

EUR/USD (Black) vs German/US 10yr Spread (Red)

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Key Levels, Risk of Setback

Source: Refinitiv

Second wave of COVID cases across Europe is evident with several countries forced to renew lockdown measures, thus growth differentials look to also move in favour of the US over the Eurozone. In turn, tomorrow’s PMI readings will be of interest as they will take into account lockdown measures that have taken place in October. That said, the Euro looks to be trading at slightly rich levels against its major counterparts and thus remains vulnerable to set backs.

EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
Recommended by Justin McQueen
Download our fresh Q4 EURForecast
Get My Guide

EUR/USD Driven to Rich Levels by Chinese Yuan

EUR/USD: A factor behind the notable support for the Euro has been the Chinese Yuan going from strength to strength, as such, a slowing in the appreciation of the Yuan can be enough to curtail upside in the Euro. On the topside, resistance resides at 1.1900-15, where a break above opens the door to 1.1940-50. Initial support sits at 1.1830 (Oct 9th peak) with a move below opening the doors to 1.1790-1.1800. Sizeable option expiries between 1.1800-1.1900 could see the spot price remain within this range.

EUR/USD BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 18% -3% 3%
Weekly 11% -8% -3%
Learn how to use Sentiment in your trading strategy
Get My Guide

EUR/JPY Vulnerable to Setback Towards 123.00

EUR/JPY: In light of the factors mentioned above, risks appear tilted to the downside in the cross with a move towards 123.00 on the cards. Once again the 50DMA (124.62) held firm after another failed attempt at piercing through, which in turn puts the focus on the 100DMA at 123.50. Below the 100DMA exposes psychological support at 123.00, marking the Oct 2nd and 15th bottom.

EUR/JPY BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -11% 4% -3%
Weekly -33% 3% -16%
Learn how to use Sentiment in your trading strategy
Get My Guide

10 Most Popular Candlestick Patterns

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES