News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Gold slightly lower as equities, dollar put in mixed sessions $XAU $USD $DXY https://t.co/37c9N2gzgh
  • The $VIX can't continue to trace out this coasting pattern for long. Again, I don't usually throw technical analysis on indicators derived from underlying activity, but VIX has become a trading vehicle in its own right https://t.co/qBvMeOCmmW
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.31% Oil - US Crude: -0.08% Gold: -0.32% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/DpPoyNP5hl
  • After a strong breakout this summer, Gold prices have now spent almost six months digesting. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/H7k5kv4N5i https://t.co/shvReKpe1U
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 70.32%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/ivQLPokYOs
  • The US Dollar is now trading lower again. After hitting an intraday low around 90.15, the $DXY rebounded to 90.25 but has turned toward again, falling back below 90.20. $USD https://t.co/xyglMBmakL
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.14% Wall Street: 0.06% US 500: 0.03% Germany 30: 0.02% FTSE 100: -0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/SbFlX1iTdj
  • #Gold is consolidating slightly higher this week, around $1,850, after the precious metal's failed attempt at breaking above the $1,870 level last week. $XAU $GLD https://t.co/MyeWiBSQZR
  • US 10yr yields have notably tightened, falling from 1.10% yesterday to trade around 1.04% today. Yields still remain elevated in 2021 compared to earlier in the pandemic. $GOVT $IEF $USD https://t.co/uT27KDUkhM
  • Hey traders! Get your Tuesday market update from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/WPk9aapKhs
LIVE: Australian Dollar in Focus on China GDP Data

LIVE: Australian Dollar in Focus on China GDP Data

Daniel Moss, Analyst

Australian Dollar, China Q3 GDP, IMF World Economic Outlook, Australia-China Trade Tensions:

  • Upcoming economic data out of China could fuel the Australian Dollar’s push to retest its yearly high.
  • However, deteriorating Australia-China relations threatens to fuel a period of significant risk aversion.
Advertisement

IMF Forecast China to Lead Global Economic Recovery

Fresh data prints coming out of China may sway AUD/USD, as Australia’s largest trading partner is expected to grow 5.5% in the third quarter of 2020.

Should this expansionary print come to pass, it would show that the Chinese economy has recovered all lost ground from its record 6.8% contraction in the first quarter and continues to lead the global economic rebound from the coronavirus-induced doldrums.

In fact, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest projections indicate that China is the only major nation expected to grow this year, on the back of a surge in export demand and its success in containing the outbreak of the highly infectious coronavirus.

LIVE: Australian Dollar in Focus on China GDP Data

DailyFX Economic Calendar

Moreover, the Chinese government has yet to unleash trillions of yuan in stimulus, after selling a record amount of bonds this year, which suggests that a more extensive recovery could be in the offing.

Beijing has ordered regional governments to sell 3.75 trillion yuan of bonds by the end of October, building on the 2.27 trillion already issued by the end of July and surpassing the total amount of debt issued in 2019.

Therefore, with a substantial fiscal stimulus safety-net in place it appears the world’s second-largest economy is set to continue expanding this year, which may ultimately buoy regional risk appetite and in turn put a premium on the cyclically-sensitive Australian Dollar.

LIVE: Australian Dollar in Focus on China GDP Data
AUD Forecast
AUD Forecast
Recommended by Daniel Moss
Get Your Free AUD Forecast
Get My Guide

Australia-China Tensions Limiting AUD

However, escalating tensions with China may hamper the trade-sensitive AUD, after two Australian cotton industry groups released a joint statement stating that “it has become clear to our industry that the National Development Reform Commission in China has recently been discouraging their country’s spinning mills from using Australian cotton”.

These measures are the latest in a tit-for-tat exchange that has seen Australia’s largest trading partner impose 80% tariffs on barley exports, launch an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy probe into the country’s wine, and verbally ban imports of Australian thermal and coking coal.

Given China accounts for 40% of Australia’s exports, a marked deterioration in relations would have devastating consequences for the local economy and could possibly lead to $80 billion worth of iron ore exports falling into the Asian powerhouse’s crosshairs.

To that end, the development of this pivotal relationship should be intently watched by market participants, with a notable escalation in trade-based actions more than likely fuelling a period of risk aversion and in turn hampering the performance of the Australian Dollar.

Australia Exports by Country

LIVE: Australian Dollar in Focus on China GDP Data

Source – Trading Economics

AUD/USD Daily Chart – 100-DMA Nurturing Rebound

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD exchange rate seems poised to climb higher despite collapsing through Ascending Channel support and the pivotal 61.8% Fibonacci (0.7131), as price remains constructively perched above the 100-day moving average (0.7059).

With AUD/USD carving out a Bull Flag formation just above key support and the RSI eyeing a cross back above its neutral midpoint, the path of least resistance seems skewed to the topside.

A daily close back above the 61.8% Fibonacci (0.7131) would probably generate a retest of the monthly high (0.7243), with a break and close above the 0.7250 mark needed to carve a path to test the September high (0.7413).

Conversely, a break below the 100-DMA (0.7059) could ignite a more extensive pullback and bring key psychological support at the 0.7000 level into focus.

LIVE: Australian Dollar in Focus on China GDP Data

AUD/USD daily chart created using TradingView

-- Written by Daniel Moss, Analyst for DailyFX

Follow me on Twitter @DanielGMoss

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading
Recommended by Daniel Moss
Building Confidence in Trading
Get My Guide

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES