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DAX, S&P 500 Forecast: Resurgence in COVID Cases Fuels Sell Off

DAX, S&P 500 Forecast: Resurgence in COVID Cases Fuels Sell Off

2020-10-15 09:35:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD Analysis & News

  • DAX Sold Heavily, September Low Ahead
  • S&P 500 Back Below 3500
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A sea of red across the equity space with the recent blue wave trade unwinding as equities, USD shorts and bonds yields take a hit. The resurgence in COVID cases across Europe and the UK have prompted renewed restrictions with France imposing a night-time curfew, while the UK is set announce tier 2 measures for London has led to risk sentiment deteriorating.

STOXX 600 (-2.3%), FTSE 100 (-2.3%), DAX (-3%)

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DAX Sold Heavily, September Low Ahead

Heavy selling for the DAX with the index seeing its largest fall since Sep 21st, which in turn has put the September low in focus at 12.341. A break below opens the door to the 200DMA at 12,162. Yesterday, Chancellor Merkel announced tougher restrictions in light of record daily increases in COVID cases. Alongside this, as markets also keep a close eye on the upcoming election, with volatility set to increase, bounce backs are expected to be shallow and thus see the DAX remaining soft in the weeks ahead.

Germany 30 BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 26% -18% 6%
Weekly 66% -36% 6%
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DAX 30 Chart: Daily Time Frame

DAX, S&P 500 Forecast: Resurgence in COVID Cases Fuels Sell Off

Source: Refinitiv

S&P 500 Back Below 3500

US futures on the backfoot as risk sentiment takes a turn for the worst, which sees the S&P 500 retracing to 3443 (61.8% fib of Sep 3rd - 24th drop). In turn, a break below raises the risk of a fall to 3430 before the psychological 3400 level. Alongside this, with comments from US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin that a stimulus package before the election is unlikely, upside may be hard to come by in the short-term.

US 500 MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -4% 1% -1%
Weekly 10% -12% -4%
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