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Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Struggles, Greenlight Coming for RBA Action?

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Struggles, Greenlight Coming for RBA Action?

Justin McQueen, Strategist

AUD/USD Analysis & News

  • RBA Governor to Give Greenlight for RBA Easing
  • AUD/USD Topside Struggling at 0.7200

RBA Governor to Give Greenlight for RBA Easing

The main event for the Australian Dollar will be the scheduled speech from RBA Governor Lowe at 23:00BST. The focus for market participants will be whether Governor Lowe gives the greenlight that further easing will likely take place at the November meeting. As a reminder, at the September policy decision, the RBA acknowledged that the 3yr yield had fallen below the 25bps target as markets priced in the probability of more monetary stimulus. Given that this signals that the RBA are supporting current market pricing, this has raised scope that the RBA will go down this route at the upcoming meeting. Confirmation from RBA Governor Lowe tonight can see AUD/USD hold below 0.72.

The other focal point for the Australian Dollar will be the employment report with particular attention placed on the unemployment rate. While the RBA does not see the unemployment hitting 10%, the RBA have noted that the rate is expected to remain high and thus a higher than expected figure in the upcoming report is likely to further validate the case for a November easing package.

AUD/USD Topside Struggling at 0.7200

An interesting observation this week in FX markets has been the limited spill over from higher equities into high-beta currencies, most notably the Aussie. Among the reasons behind this has been the two way risks facing the Yuan now after the PBoC lowered the costs to short the currency, while the upcoming speech from RBA Governor Lowe also presents a risk for the AUD. In the short-term, option expiry at 0.7175-80 looks to keep upside capped for now, above however, puts the psychological 0.7200 into focus, which also coincides with the option implied high. As such, with the renewed bid in the greenback the AUD bias is for fading bounces.

(Implied range based on option pricing: 0.7120-0.7200)

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