News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/p9Pkkbo2zf
  • The docket thins out over the coming week, but there are a few serious market highlights that can make for some interesting opportunities in the week ahead. $GBPUSD has the technical chops and fundamental confluence (US CPI, UK GDP, etc) https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/05/08/Dollar-Tumbles-Dow-Hits-Record-Highs-and-Dogecoin-Traders-Tune-In.html https://t.co/BMUQ0xVOge
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfIZNKr https://t.co/nBfJcptUDK
  • Dogecoin continues to trade higher with explosive energy, attesting to the cryptocurrency's new clout. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum sink. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/ohw714KqB2 https://t.co/EWxKoQykv1
  • Natural gas prices moved higher, capturing a long-term trendline that could support the heating commodity's price in the coming weeks as colder temps support fundamental side. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/tGUDJE9hn0 https://t.co/nROsrJa1sv
  • The Euro may fall against the US Dollar amid a historically strong month for the Greenback and relative bond yield spreads. EUR/USD appears to be eyeing bearish technical warning signs. Get your $EURUSD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/njTDk8Ehoi https://t.co/w4II63utz1
  • The US Dollar is still struggling against most ASEAN currencies. USD/SGD remains downside-focused despite recent gains. USD/THB is eyeing a triangle. USD/IDR and USD/PHP may point lower. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/6Nvvmz8h6d https://t.co/TYsfOXHrro
  • (Weekly Fundamental) Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD May Rise on Dovish Fed Speak After Huge NFP Miss #AUD $AUDUSD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2021/05/07/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-AUDUSD-May-Rise-on-Dovish-Fed-Speak-After-Huge-NFP-Miss.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/L9pERwjTqh
  • Bitcoin is struggling to extend April’s bounce while Ethereum and Litecoin are exhibiting signs of momentum exhaustion. What are key technical levels to watch for ahead? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/PnZId4xOh2 https://t.co/ZTYoxdBxLl
  • The Indian Rupee has been rising despite a surge in local Covid cases, owing to rising yields amid a temporary flood of US Dollars into the banking system. INR remains at risk, eyeing CPI data. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/6r7hahVtx4 https://t.co/a0z46Q0Mn4
Silver and Copper at Risk as Trump Pulls the Plug on Fiscal Aid Talks

Silver and Copper at Risk as Trump Pulls the Plug on Fiscal Aid Talks

Daniel Moss, Analyst

Silver, XAG/USD, Copper, Fiscal Stimulus Negotiations, US Presidential Election – Talking Points:

  • The decision by President Trump to abruptly cease Congressional stimulus negotiations may weigh on commodity prices.
  • However, the incumbent President continues to trail his Democratic challenger in the polls which may discount his recent remarks.
  • Silver poised to move lower as price carves out Bear Flag continuation pattern.
  • Copper gearing up for a rebound higher as key support remains intact.
Advertisement

Commodity Prices in Peril as Congressional Stimulus Talks Grind to a Halt

Donald Trump’s unexpected decision to pull the plug on fiscal stimulus negotiations could drastically undermine copper and silver prices in the near-term, as the President tweeted “I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business”.

Trump added that instead of continuing talks with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi he has “asked Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell not to delay, but to instead focus full time on approving my outstanding nominee to the United States Supreme Court, Amy Coney Barrett”.

The President’s unwillingness to continue talks appeared to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s earlier comments stressing that “the expansion is still far from complete [and] at this early stage, I would argue that the risks of policy intervention are still asymmetric. Too little support would lead to a weak recovery creating unnecessary hardship”.

Silver and Copper at Risk as Trump Pulls the Plug on Fiscal Aid Talks

Given that small business revenue continues to hover 22.4% lower than pre-crisis levels and continuing jobless claims remain almost two times higher than the peak seen in the 2008 global financial crisis, the absence of much-needed fiscal stimulus may markedly sour market sentiment and ignite the haven-associated US Dollar’s resurgence.

However, with Mr Trump rapidly losing ground against Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the polls and only 27 days until the US Presidential Election, the market may begin to discount the incumbent President’s remarks.

In fact, there is a distinct possibility that investors could begin to price in a potential Biden presidency, which is expected to bring with it substantial fiscal stimulus if the Senate flips to a Democratic majority.

Therefore, although metal prices may slide lower in the short-term, further widening of the gap between Mr Trump and Mr Biden could firm market sentiment and possibly ignite a resumption of silver and copper’s respective uptrends extending from the March doldrums.

Silver and Copper at Risk as Trump Pulls the Plug on Fiscal Aid Talks

Data Source – RealClearPolitics, Bloomberg

Silver Price Daily Chart – Bear Flag in Play?

Silver prices look poised to extend their retreat from the yearly high set in August, as price carves out a Bear Flag continuation pattern just above the 100-day moving average (22.34) after collapsing through Symmetrical Triangle support on September 21.

With price tracking below the trend-defining 50-DMA (20.68) and the RSI struggling to clamber back above its neutral midpoint, the path of least resistance seems to be lower.

A daily close below the tentative uptrend extending from the September low (21.66) could trigger a more extensive correction, with a break below psychological support at the 22.00 level needed to validate the bearish continuation pattern and bring the July 15 swing-high into focus (19.48).

Conversely, a break back above the July 28 daily close (24.37) would probably invalidate bearish potential and open a path for price to retest the yearly high (29.86).

Silver and Copper at Risk as Trump Pulls the Plug on Fiscal Aid Talks

Silver prices daily chart created using TradingView

Copper Prices Daily Chart – 50-DMA Limiting Potential Upside

Copper prices could be gearing up to rebound higher in the coming days, despite falling over 5.5% on the first trading day of October and sliding as much as 9.2% from the yearly high set just two weeks ago.

With price perched constructively above key support at the 38.2% Fibonacci (2.8165) and the slope of the 100-DMA and 200-DMA notably steepening, the path of least resistance seems skewed to the topside.

However, a retest of the monthly low could be in the offing if the ductile metal slides back below the 23.6% Fibonacci (2.8840), with a close below the 2.8000 mark probably igniting a push to test the 50% Fibonacci (2.7620).

That being said, an extension of the rebound from the monthly low (2.8345) looks to be the more likely outcome, with a daily close above psychological resistance at the 3.0000 mark needed to carve a path to retest the yearly high (3.1040).

Silver and Copper at Risk as Trump Pulls the Plug on Fiscal Aid Talks

Copper futures (HG) daily chart created using TradingView

-- Written by Daniel Moss, Analyst for DailyFX

Follow me on Twitter @DanielGMoss

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES