News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.71% France 40: 0.45% Germany 30: 0.41% US 500: 0.05% Wall Street: 0.05% View the performance of all markets via
  • Bruno Le Maire, France's Finance Minister, sees economic growth -15% during second coronavirus lockdown -BBG
  • US equity indices letting out some air since ripping higher in afternoon trade. Eyes on earnings from Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google due after-hours. $NDX: +2.54% $SPX: +1.60% $DJI: +0.94%
  • Gold prices have reversed off confluence downtrend resistance but keeps XAU/USD within a broader September range. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here:
  • US Tech Earnings After the Close
  • Indeed... because my report was posted many hours ago
  • And a great guest you were too. Thank you!
  • USD/CAD trades to a fresh monthly high (1.3390) as the US Dollar appreciates on the back of waning risk appetite. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.45% Silver: 0.15% Gold: -0.38% View the performance of all markets via
  • Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Crude Oil Sinks to Fresh Four-Month-Lows
British Pound (GBP) Outlook - Brexit Newsflow Continues to Dominate Sterling

British Pound (GBP) Outlook - Brexit Newsflow Continues to Dominate Sterling

2020-10-05 08:00:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist

Brexit News and GBP/USD Price, Analysis and Chart:

  • Brexit talks continue ahead of crucial European Council meeting.
  • GBP/USD holds onto 1.2900 as markets remain positive on a Brexit outcome.

UK PM Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke over the weekend in an effort to push trade negotiations forward. UK PM Johnson said that a deal is there to be done but warned that if the two sides failed to reach an agreement, the UK can more than live with trading on WTO terms. The two leaders are now expected to talk on a regular basis to keep the talks moving forward. The UK reiterated that it needs to see progress by October 15 on whether a deal is possible, while the European Council meeting on October 15-16 will take stock of the implementation of the withdrawal agreement and review the state of the negotiations on the future EU-UK partnership. Leaders will discuss preparatory work for all scenarios after 1 January 2021’. If sufficient movement has been made, and common ground identified, then negotiators will have until early-November to get a deal agreed.

GBP Forecast
GBP Forecast
Recommended by Nick Cawley
Download our New Q4 Sterling Forecast
Get My Guide

Sterling continues to trade with a small amount of Brexit optimism priced-in, a set-up noted by investment bank Goldman Sachs in their latest Sterling outlook. The bank said that while a breakdown of talks cannot be ruled out, their core view is of a bare-bones EU/UK trade deal to be agreed by early November.

GBP/USD is clinging on to support at 1.2900 for now and needs to break above a cluster of recent highs all the way up to 1.3008 to regain a positive set-up. The pair are currently using the 20-dma (1.2860) as support. While the market is currently favoring further gains, it may be wise to sit on the sidelines until the trade talks play out.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (February – October 5, 2020)

British Pound (GBP) Outlook - Brexit Newsflow Continues to Dominate Sterling
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 10% -12% -1%
Weekly 29% -39% -15%
Learn How to Use Sentiment in Your Trading Strategy
Get My Guide

IG client sentiment data45.05% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.22 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.83% higher than yesterday and 16.65% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.68% higher than yesterday and 12.07% higher from last week.We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise.

Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBP/USD trading bias.

Traders of all levels and abilities will find something to help them make more informed decisions in the new and improved DailyFX Trading Education Centre

What is your view on Sterling – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.