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British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP/USD Easing After Debate, UK GDP, House Prices

British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP/USD Easing After Debate, UK GDP, House Prices

2020-09-30 08:00:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
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GBP price, news and analysis:

  • The US Presidential debate has prompted a modest ‘risk-off’ tone in the markets, with stocks lower, riskier currencies like GBP weaker and a minor move into safe havens such as the US Dollar.
  • There has been little reaction in GBP/USD to a small revision upwards in UK second-quarter GDP or to news of another jump in UK house prices.
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GBP/USD sliding after US Presidential debate

GBP/USD is slipping back modestly after the US Presidential debate prompted a minor move into safe havens, particularly the US Dollar, out of assets seen as more risky such as stocks, AUD, EUR and GBP. While the debate yielded little new, it heightened concerns that President Donald Trump might not accept the result and that the outcome could therefore be delayed.

GBP/USD Price Chart, One-Hour Timeframe (September 23-30, 2020)

Latest GBP/USD price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

UK GDP revised, contraction smaller than first estimate

The latest economic data from the UK were mixed, with the second-quarter contraction in GDP revised to 19.8% quarter/quarter from the original estimate of 20.4% – still a record decline. However, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey forecast Tuesday that economic activity was probably about 7-10% weaker between July and September than before the coronavirus pandemic and had finished the third quarter growing more strongly than in the period as a whole.

You can read here how GDP data affect forex trading

Bailey also said that the central bank was realistic about the challenges negative interest rates would pose for the banking system, but repeated he was not ruling them out as a way to help the UK economy.

UK house prices jump

By contrast, the UK housing market remains buoyant, according to the Nationwide house price index. This recorded an increase of 5% year/year in September, above both the forecast 4.5% and the previous month’s 3.7%.

UK GDP and house prices.

Note though that GBP/USD is still reacting more to the ebb and flow of risk sentiment than to the UK data.

GBP/USD BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -1% 6% 3%
Weekly -11% 45% 19%
What does it mean for price action?
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--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst

Feel free to contact me on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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