News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here:
  • but the next major point in my view to monitor will be 52.76 - at least in the short term.
  • #Brent having broken above the pre-OPEC drop off at 45.51 is a huge deal considering it failed to crack resistance there in August (leading to the invalidation of "uptrend 2") and the psychological significance of that level
  • The New Zealand Dollar looks poised to extend its push higher against its haven-associated counterparts on robust economic data and a less dovish stance from the RBNZ. Get your $NZD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2020? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here:
  • The Swiss Franc may continue higher against the US Dollar as technical pressure favors USD/CHF bears..Get your $USDCHF market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • The US Dollar lost ground to most ASEAN currencies as Emerging Market assets climbed despite US economic woes. USD/INR is eyeing third-quarter Indian GDP at the end of the week. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The global stock market can be categorized into specific groups or ‘stock market sectors’. Organizing the vast number of stocks in this way helps traders to view assets in a more manageable way. Get your stock market sectors basics here:
  • The Euro looks poised to continue gaining ground against haven-associated currencies and may reverse higher against the British Pound in the near term. Get your #Euro market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • Gold and silver prices have come under significant pressure recently. However, this correction lower could prove short-lived as price analysis hints at a reversal higher. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
New Zealand Dollar Gains on RBNZ, But NZD/USD May Follow S&P 500 Lower

New Zealand Dollar Gains on RBNZ, But NZD/USD May Follow S&P 500 Lower

2020-09-23 02:30:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst

New Zealand Dollar, NZD/USD, RBNZ – Talking Points

  • New Zealand Dollar appreciates on the RBNZ rate decision
  • Sentiment-linked NZD is at risk to rising volatility in equities
  • NZD/USD may fall based on bearish technical warning signs

The New Zealand Dollar gained on the RBNZ rate decision, as anticipated in my fundamental forecast. The benchmark lending rate was maintained at 0.25%, as widely anticipated by economists. What seemed to drive the NZD higher instead was most likely an absence of further quantitative easing measures or a hint of urgency in the near term. That likely disappointed expectations, resulting in a less dovish outcome.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky
Why do interest rates matter for currencies?
Get My Guide

The RBNZ did however keep the door open to provide additional stimulus, with tools such as a negative interest rate. In fact, the central bank reported that the banking system is on track to be ready in an environment of negative rates. This makes sense, the RBNZ sees the balance of risks as tilted to the downside. There may be a rise in unemployment and an increase in firm closures.

Additional Commentary from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand

  • Progress is being made on additional monetary tools
  • Monetary policy needs to support the economy for a long time
  • Alternative tools can be deployed independently
  • The central bank prefers to launch the bank funding program before end of 2020

Heading into the RBNZ, overnight index swaps were pricing in about a 75% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in February. These odds may have been somewhat diminished. Today’s interest rate announcement also follows in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve from last week. There, Chair Jerome Powell seemed to express a lack of urgency to expand its balance sheet, leaving equities vulnerable to disappointment.

Going forward, the sentiment-linked Kiwi Dollar remains under the mercy of general risk appetite. Lately, the faltering on Wall Street has left the currency vulnerable. Investors may be growing increasingly impatient by a lack of urgency from the Federal Reserve to materially boost asset purchases. This is as a second fiscal package remains on the sidelines given ongoing stalemates between members of Congress.

New Zealand Dollar Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the New Zealand Dollar could be at risk to extending losses. NZD/USD recently closed under a rising trend line from March, confirming the breakout. This followed the emergence of a bearish Shooting Star candlestick formation and negative RSI divergence. The latter showed fading upside momentum. Key support sits below as the 0.6503 – 0.6537 range followed by 0.6381 – 0.6419.

Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -9% -8% -8%
Weekly 23% -9% -3%
What does this mean for the NZDUSD outlook?
Get My Guide

NZD/USD Daily Chart

New Zealand Dollar Gains on RBNZ, But NZD/USD May Follow S&P 500 Lower

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.