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EUR/USD Presses Higher, Eyes New 27-Month High as Euro Area Confidence Continues to Pick-Up

EUR/USD Presses Higher, Eyes New 27-Month High as Euro Area Confidence Continues to Pick-Up

Nick Cawley, Strategist

EUR/USD Price, News and Analysis:

  • EUR/USD back above 1.1900, buoyed by US dollar weakness.
  • IG client sentiment suggests that EURUSD may move higher.

Euro area economic and industrial sentiment picked up in August, beating expectations, and underpinning an already strong EURUSD. The employment expectations indicator improved for the fourth month in a row.

EUR/USD Presses Higher, Eyes New 27-Month High as Euro Area Confidence Continues to Pick-Up

DailyFX Economic Data and Events Calendar

While sentiment is improving, the recent surge of new COVID-19 cases in Europe may well weigh on future releases. France announced 5,429 new cases yesterday, the largest rise since April 14, while Spain registered 7,296 new cases. The sharp rise in new cases may cause further wide-spread lockdowns, further damaging already fragile economies.

EUR/USD Looking at 1.2000

EURUSD moved backed above 1.1900 earlier in the session on renewed US dollar weakness after Fed chair Jerome Powell announced yesterday that the Fed is moving to average inflation targeting (AIT), suggesting that the US central bank will remain accommodative for longer. The pair are within touching distance of making a new 27-month high and may attempt to break through the psychological 1.2000 level. Recent lows all the way down to 1.1750 should provide short-term support if the 20-dma is breached at 1.1825. The next move higher may be more of a grind than a rally and today’s month-end rebalancing should be watched closely as the event can cause a spike in volatility.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (January – August 28, 2020)

EUR/USD Presses Higher, Eyes New 27-Month High as Euro Area Confidence Continues to Pick-Up

IG retail trader data shows 34.42% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.91 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 22.14% lower than yesterday and 21.26% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.72% lower than yesterday and 8.93% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise.

Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

What is your view on EUR/USD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.