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Euro Dollar Outlook: Price Action Stalls Ahead of FOMC

Euro Dollar Outlook: Price Action Stalls Ahead of FOMC

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EUR/USD Price Analysis:

Focus turns to FOMC

After nine consecutive weeks of gains, EUR/USD price action has favored the bulls, with prices breaking above the psychological level of 1.1900, eager to test the May 2018 high. Now, as the Dollar remains under pressure, the focus turns to the economic calendar, with emphasis being placed on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes which will be released tonight at 18:00 GMT. Although Jerome Powell has suggested that low rates will persist for the foreseeable future, falling Treasury Yields have continued to undermine the Dollar and any mention of yield curve control may be an additional driver for price action.

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EUR/USD Approaches Fibonacci Resistance

From a technical standpoint, the weekly chart below highlights Fibonacci levels from two major moves, the primary move (pink) which is plotted between the January 2017 low to the February 2018 high and the secondary move (orange), taken from the February 2018 high to the March 2020 low. After rebounding off of the 61.8% retracement of the primary move (1.11841), a strong upward trend has been present, with prices now looking to test the May 2018 high, at 1.19960.

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However, the 61.8% retracement of the secondary move, continues to hold as support at 1.182, while the 23.6% retracement of the primary move may keep bulls at bay as prices near the 1.200 mark.

EUR/USD Weekly Chart

Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa, IG

MACD Remains Above Zero

Using a shorter time-frame, the four hour chart below indicates that the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), a technical indicator used to determine the direction and momentum of the trend, is currently hovering above the zero-line, suggesting that an upward trend is present and that momentum is still relatively strong, for now.

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In addition to this, price action remains in a confluent zone, between the above mentioned Fibonacci levels.

EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart

Chart prepared by Tammy Da Costa, IG

Client Sentiment

EUR/USD Client Sentiment
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IGCS shows that, at the time of writing, EUR/USD client sentiment remains bearish, with 61% of retail traders are holding short positions in. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment and the fact that clients are net short, suggests that prices may continue to rise

--- Written by Tammy Da Costa, Market Writer for

Contact and follow Tammy on Twitter: @Tams707

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.