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Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Builds Range – Chart Levels Eyed

Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Builds Range – Chart Levels Eyed

2020-08-12 14:00:00
Rich Dvorak, Analyst
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EUR/USD PRICE OUTLOOK: EURO TO US DOLLAR BUILDS TRADING RANGE – LEVELS TO WATCH

  • EUR/USD price action has drifted lower and now gravitates below its 8-day moving average
  • Euro strength wanes as the bloc currency gives back recent gains against its US Dollar peer
  • EUR/USD could develop a trading range roughly between the 1.1700-1.1900 price levels

EUR/USD price action has fluctuated within a broad 200-pip trading range after the major currency pair topped out at the 1.19-handle. The Euro still trades considerably higher relative to its US Dollar counterpart, currently up about 10% since EUR/USD based around the 1.08-price level three months ago, but the bloc currency has started to surrender some of those gains.

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EUR/USD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (01 MAY TO 11 AUGUST 2020)

EURUSD EUR USD Price Chart Outlook Euro to US Dollar Technical Analysis

As Euro strength starts to ebb, which is indicated by the falling relative strength index, it seems that EUR/USD bulls are losing conviction. This follows a potential double top pattern at the 1.1900-mark. Spot EUR/USD price action now hovers below its downward-sloping 8-day moving average.

EUR/USD BULLISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -9% 22% 9%
Weekly -11% 17% 5%
What does it mean for price action?
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This technical barrier could suggest a bearish bias may be developing as the short-term trend starts to point lower. That said, interim technical support appears to align with month-to-date lows residing roughly around the 1.1700-handle before the medium-term 34-day moving average comes into focus as a potential downside target for EUR/USD bears.

EUR/USD PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (29 APRIL TO 11 AUGUST 2020)

EUR/USD Price Chart Outlook Euro to US Dollar German Bund to Treasury Yield Spread

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

Another headwind potentially threatening the recent EUR/USD rally is the latest collapse in sovereign yield spreads between 10-year US Treasuries and German Bunds. This widening interest rate differential could provide a boost to the US Dollar relative to its lower-yielding Euro peer, particularly if the move higher in Treasury yields can gain traction.

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

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