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EUR/USD Price Waits for US NFPs, EUR/GBP Slides on Sterling Strength

EUR/USD Price Waits for US NFPs, EUR/GBP Slides on Sterling Strength

Nick Cawley, Strategist

EUR/USD and EUR/GBP Prices, News and Analysis:

  • EUR/USD consolidating near two-year highs.
  • EUR/GBP struggling as Sterling pushes higher.
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EUR/USD – A New Two-Year High

After hitting a new two-year high of 1.1916, EUR/USD is now trading in the middle of today’s range at 1.1865 and needs a new driver to make or break the recent rally. With the US dollar the main influence on the pair, Friday’s US Jobs Report is now key and will likely spark a fresh bout of volatility. Wednesday’s ADP report was a mixed bag with the July employment change disappointing – 167k vs expectations of 1500k – while the June number was revised sharply higher to 4314k from a prior 2369k. Last month’s nonfarm payrolls showed employment surging by 4.8 million in June, beating all analyst expectations by a wide margin. US President Donald Trump said yesterday that big jobs number was coming on Friday, so expect volatility in US dollar-related pairs. The data and events calendar and release times need to be closely watched for the rest of the week and fundamental analysis remains key.

EUR/USD is likely to tread water ahead of tomorrow’s release and any downside is likely to be limited. The pair have made higher highs and higher lows all week, while the CCI indicator shows that the market is no longer overbought. All three moving averages remain supportive and it will take a decent rally by the US dollar to push the pair much below 1.1800 and the recent double-low area just below 1.1700.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (January – August 6, 2020)

EUR/USD Price Waits for US NFPs, EUR/GBP Slides on Sterling Strength
EUR/USD Bullish
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -8% 4% -1%
Weekly -17% 19% 2%
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While EURUSD is being moved by the US dollar, EUR/GBP is being guided lower by a stronger British Pound. The UK currency is pushing aside concerns over the EU/UK trade talks and the recent uptick in new COVID-19 cases and is starting to pullback some of the recent losses seen in most GBP-pairs. GBP/NZD is up eight big figures from it’s late-July multi-month low, GBP/CAD is also up eight big figures from its mid-July low, while GBP/USD is up nearly 10 big figures from the end of June.

EUR/GBP is now struggling to break back above its 20- and 50-day moving averages and is back below 0.9000 and moving lower. Two recent lows around 0.8975 are coming under threat which would leave the mid-July low at 0.8924 vulnerable. Volatility in the pair remains low and a slow grind lower may continue.

EUR/GBP Daily Price Chart (January – August 6, 2020)

EUR/USD Price Waits for US NFPs, EUR/GBP Slides on Sterling Strength

What is your view on EUR/USD and EUR/GBP – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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