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ASX 200 May Rise on Strong US Leads, RBA Meeting in Focus

ASX 200 May Rise on Strong US Leads, RBA Meeting in Focus

Margaret Yang, CFA, Strategist

ASX 200, STRAITS TIMES INDEX OUTLOOK:

  • ASX 200 index is set to jump 1.4% to 5,970. RBA rate decision in focus.
  • ASX 200 faces a key resistance at 6,100, which is the upper ceiling of its ‘Ascending Triangle’
  • Straits Times Index underperformed Asian peers, dropping to a key support at 2,500

ASX Index Outlook:

Futures markets point to a rosy start of Australia’s ASX 200 index stock benchmark, which may open 1.4% higher on Tuesday. A couple of positive signs were seen in the Wall Streets last night, including a significant decrease in Covid-19 positivity rates in California and Arizona. The Nasdaq 100 surged 1.47% to a fresh high after President Trump imposed a September 15 deadline for the sale of TikTok, a popular social networking service owned by a Chinese firm, to an American company.

On the macro front, the US, Europe and China posted a string of better-than-expected manufacturing PMI readings. Caixin China manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.8 in July, reaching its highest level seen in nearly a decade.

On the commodity front, recent jump in precious metal prices have boosted Australia’s mining sector, with Materials (+1.48%) continued to outperform the benchmark stock index despite an overall flat trading session yesterday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to hold its policy interest rate unchanged at 0.25% at today’s meeting. A falling inflation rate since the last RBA decision has perhaps made it even tougher to consider a rate hike in the near future against the backdrop of Victoria’s lockdown.

Sector-wise, defensive healthcare (+2.25%), materials (+1.48%), energy (+1.13%) and utilities (+0.95%) were among the best performers, whist cyclical financials (-2.13%), consumer discretionary (-1.59%) and real estate (-0.87%) were lagging.

ASX 200 Sector performance 3-8-2020

ASX 200 May Rise on Strong US Leads, RBA Meeting in Focus

Technically, the ASX 200 index is oscillating between 5,900 – 6,100 over the past few weeks. It remains in an ‘Ascending Triangle’ as illustrated in the chart below. 6,100 remains a key resistance level.

ASX 200 IndexDaily Chart

ASX 200 May Rise on Strong US Leads, RBA Meeting in Focus

Straits Times Index Outlook:

Singapore’s Straits Times Index stock benchmark (STI) has fallen for a second straight day with higher trading volume. The STI was largely underperforming its Asia-Pacific peers this year, registering a -22% year-to-date losses. This trend doesn’t look great as investors continued to worry about Singapore’s economic outlook amidst a global recession weighed.

Sector-wise, cyclical-linked industrials, consumer discretionary, real estates and banks were among the worst performers on Monday. Potential positive carry-through from the US session may help to cushion downside potential today.

Technically, the STI has come to a key support level at 2,500, which is the lower bound of the range-bound zone as shown in the chart below. Breaking 2,500 support will likely open the room for more downside towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2,450 and then 2,200.

Straits Times IndexDaily Chart

ASX 200 May Rise on Strong US Leads, RBA Meeting in Focus

--- Written by Margaret Yang, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Margaret, use the Comments section below or @margaretyjy on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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