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S&P 500, Dow Jones Forecast: Risk-Taking Cut Back Ahead of FOMC

S&P 500, Dow Jones Forecast: Risk-Taking Cut Back Ahead of FOMC

2020-07-28 11:10:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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S&P 500, Dow Jones Price Analysis & News

Relative calm in the equity space with US futures signalling a slight softness in light of a subdued lead from Europe. That said, much of the excitement is in the precious metals complex, which saw another volatile session. This had been particularly evident in silver as the precious metal saw a firm rejection of the $26 handle to the low $22s. Therefore, providing market participants a reminder that while markets are bullish on precious metals, the market does not simply just go in one direction.

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S&P 500| Risk-Taking Lighten Up Ahead of FOMC

Yesterday saw downside in the S&P 500, once again finding support at 3210-3215. However, with the failure to reach the February gap (3260), risks are for a retest of support. As we noted in our weekly forecast, technical divergence highlights the bearish risks facing the S&P 500. On the downside, a break below 3210 opens up the door to 3177-85.

On the macro front, a resurgent in COVID cases across parts of Europe are seemingly beginning to unnerve investors; however, it would take a reimposition of lockdown measures to spark renewed selling. Elsewhere, risk-taking is maybe a touch lighter ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC, where all the focus will be on the accompanying statement, as well as the Q&A. US earnings will also garner attention with 37% of S&P 500 companies reporting this week.

S&P 500 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

S&P 500, Dow Jones Forecast: Risk-Taking Cut Back Ahead of FOMC

Source: Refinitiv

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Dow Jones | Potential for Interim Top

Much like the S&P 500, the Dow Jones is at risk of forming an interim top, as the index slides to the 21DMA at 26250. Failure to hold, places the initial focus onto 26000, which increases the likelihood of the beginning of a wider pullback. As such, we place close attention to the aforementioned Fed meeting, in which Chair Powell will have to walk a tight rope to provide enough dovish signals to meet dovish demands. That said, on the topside, key resistance is situated at 27000.

Dow Jones Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

S&P 500, Dow Jones Forecast: Risk-Taking Cut Back Ahead of FOMC

Source: Refinitiv

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