0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇨🇭 Unemployment Rate (JUL) Actual: 3.2% Previous: 3.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-10
  • Heads Up:🇨🇭 Unemployment Rate (JUL) due at 05:45 GMT (15min) Previous: 3.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-10
  • The US Dollar is testing key support levels against the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Philippine Peso and Indonesian Rupiah following persistent losses. Get your #ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/qqYDELqydd https://t.co/WPUL1SO8Fv
  • - #USDollar may catch a haven bid as the US and China lock horns over technology - #TrumpExecutiveOrders may encounter congressional friction, spark dash to cash - #bidenvppick announcement could fail to stir markets unless the choice is unexpected https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/08/10/US-Dollar-Comeback-Ahead-US-China-Tensions-Push-Havens-Higher.html
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.01%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 77.49%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/AB97lqEJQB
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.18% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.13% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.12% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.08% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ThG7IBzIKu
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.67% France 40: 0.66% Germany 30: 0.60% Wall Street: 0.23% US 500: 0.14% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/2l1TvwiW5l
  • The Indian Rupee struggled to benefit from an unexpected RBI rate hold as the Nifty 50 inched closer to invalidating a bearish reversal signal. What is the road ahead for USD/INR? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/Zjiay6hQWT https://t.co/IdM8hb6pI1
  • Join @ZabelinDimitri 's #webinar at 11:30 PM ET/3:30 AM GMT to find out how geopolitical risk will affect the markets in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/hsULxMNOtM https://t.co/TJbPf8arC3
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.26% Gold: -0.27% Silver: -1.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/4Ap99p4ATh
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Testing Multi-Year Symmetrical Triangle

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Testing Multi-Year Symmetrical Triangle

2020-07-27 17:00:00
Warren Venketas, Markets Writer
Share:

EUR/USD PRICE ANALYSIS:

EUR/USD TRADING AT DIAGONAL LEVEL OF CONFLUENCE

A strong Euro through Q2 has sent the pair soaring over 10% with investors favoring the Euro over the US Dollar during the period. Coupled with seemingly stronger economic policies and direction, Euro bulls remain at the helm. The Euro is gaining more and more traction amongst global investors as a potential alternate safe-haven currency, as reflected in its recent price appreciation.

EUR/USD MONTHLY CHART

EUR/USD montly chart

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

The multi-year EUR/USD symmetrical triangle (chart above) is edging ever closer to a breakout point (yellow). The symmetrical triangle is suggestive of a bullish continuation if price breaks above the descending upper trendline resistance. For now, price remains within the chart pattern at resistance, suggestive of a possible short-term retreat. Bears may look to defend resistance around trendline resistance and possibly push prices back towards the 1.1500 psychological support level.

EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
Recommended by Warren Venketas
Download our Q3 Euro Forecast
Get My Guide

From the bullish perspective, traders will likely look for a monthly candle close above topside resistance before looking at further upside. If the breakout confirmation is observed, initial resistance can be seen at the 50% Fibonacci level around 1.2121 (Fibonacci taken from September 2000 low to March 2008 high).

3 Triangle Patterns Every Forex Trader Should Know

COT REPORT

The EU recovery agreement last week has been swiftly concluded giving additional impetus for Euro bulls. The decisiveness by EU leaders has fostered a positive sentiment around the Eurozone. This can be seen by a dramatic drop off in EUR/USD short positions (see COT report below). Long positions continue to rise with net positions enduring on the long side. This being said, long speculators may increase the risk associated with supplementary short-term upside.

EUR/USD COT report

Source: CFTC

Learn how to use the COT Report

DAILYFX ECONOMIC CALENDAR

dailfx economic calendar

DailyFX Economic Calendar

The economic calendar is riddled with high-impact US and EU events this week - DailyFX economic calendar above. The biggest drivers will most likely come from the Fed rate announcement, and GDP indicators from both the US and EU respectively. Although the Fed is expected to keep interest rates the same, a secondary stimulus package could be on the horizon aptly labeled ‘CARES 2’.

Although the details of the anticipated package are opaque to market participants, it is likely that the package proposals can create waves within the forex market. Traders will need to monitor these fundamental variables which can cause spikes in volatility and price action.

US-CHINA TENSIONS

The US-China spat has recently resurged with a tit-for-tat exchange by both countries with a few opposing consulate embassy’s being shut down. We have seen investors flock to safe -havens when prior tensions have emerged (JPY, CHF and to a lesser extent USD) but recent rebalancing of the US Dollar may give additional support to Euro strength. This relationship will be interesting to examine if tensions continue, as prior flare-ups have resulted in subsequent US Dollar strength (highlighted below). With the Euro being indulged by investors as a possible safe-haven, will future trade tensions produce similar results?

EUR/USD WEEKLY CHART

US-China impact on EUR/USD

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

EUR/USD STRATEGY MOVING FORWARD

Recent Euro strength may be stifled in the short-term, with the overall long-term view firmly bullish as the symmetrical triangle pattern continues to fill out.

Key trading points to consider:

  • Key levels – 1.2121 (50% Fibonacci) and 1.1500 psychological level
  • Technical indicators – symmetrical triangle formation
  • Economic announcements – US rate announcement and US & Euro GDP data
  • IGCS and COT report data

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA EXPRESSES SHORT-TERM PRICE REVERSAL

EUR/USD MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 8% 3% 5%
Weekly 9% 11% 10%
Learn how to use Sentiment in your trading strategy
Get My Guide

IGCS shows retail traders are net short on EUR/USD, with 68% of traders currently holding short positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short is suggestive of further upside however, with the change in long positions exceeding that of short positions the signal suggests a bearish preference.

--- Written by Warren Venketas for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.