News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Global stock markets may see turbulent volatility if darkening clouds over Washington’s relations with Beijing turn into a geopolitical storm. Which assets will be the lifeboat? Find out here:https://t.co/RkFI6qAyik https://t.co/9Ppa4d48Ql
  • The Dow Jones and S&P 500 outlook appears bleak in the near term as retail traders increase their upside exposure. At the same time, these indices confirmed bearish technical warning signs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/fKCHELbOxo https://t.co/e0liqVDzw6
  • The Japanese Yen may fall against its major peers, but there is room for a near-term climb that wouldn’t necessarily overturn a bearish technical bias. USD/JPY is eyeing support. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/AEnQCXnwAL https://t.co/tuq7DDF3jE
  • Protests in Colombia may continue to pressure the Peso, but surging commodity prices and a weaker Greenback could curb USD/COP gains. Get your market update here:https://t.co/vcVH75xuKI https://t.co/kEvbsagB4a
  • Money never sleeps.... https://t.co/mAkpWd2M3O
  • The US exchanges are closed and now we have to turn over to the cryptocurrency charts to monitor developments in risk trends over the weekend. Unfortunately, it can be difficult to separate systemic sentiment influences vs isolated issues (like a celebrity's tweet about a coin)
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.93% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.72% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.55% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.50% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.32% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/rzD7Gp4VIC
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.17% Gold: 0.92% Oil - US Crude: 0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/TU8HEn8Gbk
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.44%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 73.01%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/M5ItmLXuiw
  • The Australian Dollar plummeted more than 1.4% against the US Dollar since the start of the week with AUD/USD reversing off technical resistance at the yearly high-close. Get your $AUD market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/72ORZ3wZwx https://t.co/zG3UzI6bRc
Yen Price Forecast: USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY Charts & More

Yen Price Forecast: USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY Charts & More

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

JAPANESE YEN FORECAST: USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY – CHARTS TO WATCH

  • USD/JPY price action may be on the cusp of another leg lower as Treasury yields break down
  • AUD/JPY aims for fresh 2020 highs with the Aussie-Yen buoyed by upbeat market sentiment
  • CAD/JPY could gain ground with crude oil prices attempting to push higher

The Japanese Yen has traded sideways in wide range over the last several weeks judging by the JXY Index. On the surface, this appears owed to a recent consolidation in spot USD/JPY even as the US Dollar implodes. Looking beyond USD/JPY performance, however, a narrative underscoring broader Japanese Yen weakness emerges.

This largely follows sustained selling pressure across safe-haven currencies, like the Yen, as investor sentiment and risk appetite continue to improve. That said, what might steer the direction of JPY price action going forward?

USD/JPY PRICE CHART: DOLLAR-YEN TRACKING TEN YEAR TREASURY YIELD SPREAD OVER JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS

USD JPY Price Chart Japanese Yen Forecast USDJPY Relationship with Government Bond Yield Spread

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

USD/JPY has drifted horizontally within a 3.5% trading range since the beginning of April. The interest rate sensitive Dollar-Yen has faced bearish headwinds more recently as spot prices edge back toward monthly lows notched in May and June. Perhaps the 10-year yield spread between US Treasuries and Japanese Government Bonds serves as one possible driver steering USD/JPY price action lower.

Assuming this direct relationship is maintained, it looks like there is potential for the Japanese Yen to gain ground against the US Dollar. This is considering the latest drop in the 10-Year Treasury yield below 60-basis points, which helped the yield spread between USTs and JBGs decline.

AUD/JPY PRICE CHART: AUSSIE-YEN MIRRORING VIX INDEX ‘FEAR-GAUGE’

AUD JPY Price Chart Japanese Yen Forecast AUDJPY Relationship with VIX Index

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

After surging an eye-popping 27% off the coronavirus bottom, the Aussie-Yen is currently pressing fresh 2020 highs around the 76.500-price level and is now positive year-to-date. The incredible v-shaped recovery staged by sentiment-linked AUD/JPY since the mid-March trough looks underpinned by a sharp improvement in risk appetite. This is highlighted by the strong negative correlation that AUD/JPY price action tends to hold with the S&P 500 VIX Index.

Correspondingly, the Japanese Yen might remain under pressure with the VIX ‘fear-gauge’ sinking toward pre-pandemic levels as investors continue to discount, and seemingly ignore, several fundamental threats still faced by the global economy. That said, an abrupt return of risk aversion likely stands to send the VIX Index snapping higher and could be mirrored by the Aussie-Yen pivoting lower.

CAD/JPY PRICE CHART: CANADIAN DOLLAR EDGING HIGHER AGAINST YEN AS CRUDE OIL CLIMBS

CAD JPY Price Chart Japanese Yen Forecast CADJPY Relationship with Crude Oil

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

In addition to the VIX Index, the direction of crude oil might serve as another quantitative bellwether with potential of signaling where the Japanese Yen might head next. This is particularly the case for CAD/JPY price action as the Loonie eyes oil while the Yen responds to fluctuations in risk appetite fueled by changes in expectations for global GDP growth.

Upward momentum enjoyed by crude oil prices likely indicates that market participants remain confident about prospects for economic growth and oil demand. If this advance is sustained, it is possible that CAD/JPY may continue climbing as well. Conversely, the Japanese Yen could attempt to claw back gains forfeited back to the Canadian Dollar if crude oil slumps.

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES