GBP and EUR prices, news and analysis:
- EUR/GBP is testing support around the 0.90 level, with the 50-day moving average and trendline support both kicking in just below there.
- Any break would likely lead to further losses after a cautious response in EUR to the EU Summit deal and GBP shrugging off both surging UK public borrowing and strained relations between the UK and China over Hong Kong.
EUR/GBP at risk of further losses
EUR/GBP is currently testing support at and just below the 0.90 level, with any break to the downside likely to lead to further losses. If it breaks through that “round number” support level, the 50-day moving average around the same point and trendline support at 0.8979, it could then drop to the 0.8938 low recorded on July 10.
EUR/GBP Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (March 17 – July 21, 2020)
Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)
Losses in EUR/GBP have come despite EU leaders agreeing a deal on a recovery fund. Under the agreement, the European Commission will borrow €750 billion using its triple-A debt rating, disbursing €390 billion in grants – less than the originally targeted €500 billion – and €360 billion in cheap loans.
On the other side of the EUR/GBP cross, the Pound has largely ignored news that UK public-sector net borrowing was £34.8 billion in June, when Covid-19 lockdown measures were tightest. That is better than May’s £54.5 billion but worse than the £34.3 billion predicted by economists.
UK-China tensions and a Russia report
GBP also seems to have shrugged off growing tensions between the UK and China over Hong Kong, news that 900,000 UK public-sector workers will receive above-inflation pay rises and the imminent publication of a “Russia report” commissioned to investigate alleged Russian interference in UK elections.
Meanwhile, in the background, the markets’ appetite for risk has been boosted by news that the University of Oxford’s possible Covid-19 vaccine could be rolled out by the end of this year.
Find out here how to read a forex economic calendar
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--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor
Feel free to contact me on Twitter @MartinSEssex
