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Dow Jones Price Outlook: Bank Earnings Warn of Unusual Recession Ahead

Dow Jones Price Outlook: Bank Earnings Warn of Unusual Recession Ahead

Peter Hanks, Strategist

Dow Jones Price Forecast:

  • The Dow Jones has experienced notable volatility to start the week but has outperformed its sister indices thus far
  • Executives from Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase warn further economic pain is ahead
  • Nevertheless, shares were relatively flat despite poor revenue figures and concerning forecasts

Dow Jones Price Outlook: Bank Earnings Warn of Unusual Recession Ahead

Earnings season began this week as some of the country’s largest financial institutions released results for the second quarter. While revenue and earnings per share were mixed across the board, executives from each bank warned further economic pain may be ahead in the wake of coronavirus. In preparation for an increase in bad loans, each of Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan set aside significant cash reserves.

In the case of Citigroup specifically, a $7.9 billion stash of emergency cash saw earnings evaporate. Collectively, the three banks set aside $28 billion as a precautionary measure. Further still, executives from each bank cautioned the worst of covid-related economic pressures may be yet to come. “This is not a normal recession, the recessionary part of this you’re going to see down the road” said JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.

Dow Jones Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (February – July)

Dow Jones Price chart

Similar remarks were issued from Citigroup and Wells Fargo executives, yet price action in shares of each bank was relatively tame with only minor losses. With the first of the banks behind us, the market will continue to look ahead for reports from Bank of America, PNC and Goldman Sachs Wednesday with Netflix due Thursday. While earnings were poor and executives issued sobering remarks, the resultant price action would suggest the market was relatively unbothered by the reports and, in a change of pace, the Dow Jones has outpaced both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 so far this week.

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With that in mind, it seems the market may be more concerned with the leading tech names and the cutting edge of speculative risk appetite seen in shares like Tesla. Thus, I would wager the most important earnings are yet to come in the form of Netflix and other big technology names. In the meantime, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates as the season progresses.

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--Written by Peter Hanks, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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