Australian Dollar Analysis and Talking Points
AUD/USD | RBA the Main Domestic Focus
The Australian Dollar continues to track risk sentiment higher, despite the rising concerns over a second wave of COVID cases. A sizeable bid in Chinese equities to begin the week has seen the Chinese proxy, Australian Dollar among the outperformers to begin the week. That said, the key risk event for the AUD is the RBA monetary policy decision. While little is expected in terms of a change in the RBA’s monetary policy, eyes will be on the rhetoric around the Australian Dollar itself, given the sizeable rise since the March lows. Prior to this however, market participants will be placing a close eye on the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, whereby a reading over 50 (high low range is 44.9-54.0) could support the AUD further.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -11% | 5% | -3% |
| Weekly | -25% | 52% | 1% |
RBA Rate Setters Signal Comfort OverAUD
In light of recent commentary, the RBA does not appear to be signalling a great deal of concern over the rise in the Australian Dollar, unlike their NZ counterpart. With this in mind, the reaction in the AUD will largely depend on the commentary around the exchange rate, whereby a continued signal of comfort regarding the current level in the AUD could see the currency make a march towards the 0.70 handle yet again. However, as RBA Harper alludes to, gains in the Aussie above 0.70 could be somewhat shallow.
Australian Dollar Technical Outlook
| Support | Resistance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6900 | - | 0.6980 | Jun-23rd High |
| 0.6850 | - | 0.7000 | - |
| 0.6820 | 50% Fib | 0.7062 | 2020 High |
AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame
Source: IG Charts
--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX
