News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here: https://t.co/vGx8HCrRwD https://t.co/7w5jodyzj0
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/L3LPCph2ST
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/ysxKO30ZWw
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/5nHxtlZ7nn
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/lqpXwWjVFt
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/CrpXuYgfRO
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/VzEbQn8blk
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/bZEFtp8kFe https://t.co/ETF52Q2sLz
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/AXZxK8Abrh
  • Global stock markets may see turbulent volatility if darkening clouds over Washington’s relations with Beijing turn into a geopolitical storm. Which assets will be the lifeboat? Find out here:https://t.co/RkFI6qAyik https://t.co/9Ppa4d48Ql
US Dollar Price Action Set for Non-Farm Payrolls

US Dollar Price Action Set for Non-Farm Payrolls

Justin McQueen, Analyst

US Dollar Price Analysis & News

  • US Dollar Eyes Non-Farm Payrolls Storm
  • Revisions Matter for NFP

Today will largely center around the US NFP report, which is a day earlier than usual given the Independence Day market holiday. Expectations are for 3mln jobs to have been created for June with the unemployment rate to have dropped 1ppt to 12.3%. However, while a figure of 3mln would mark a record monthly gain, this is far from signalling a “V” shaped recovery as figure 1 shows.

DailyFX NFP Webinar

Figure 1. Far from “V” Shaped Recovery

US Dollar Price Action Set for Non-Farm Payrolls

Revisions are Important

Another aspect to keep in mind is that there is a wide range of estimates with a high/low range of 9mln to 405k further emphasising the uncertainty around this data point, which has been skewed by furlough schemes. That said, a weaker employment report would likely have a larger impact than a better than expected release. Elsewhere, the focus will also be on revisions, after yesterday’s ADP report showed a 5mln revision higher from the prior month, however, markets will be placing a close eye on the unemployment figure, given that the BLS noted that the unemployment rate may have perhaps been 3ppts higher than reported.

US Dollar Trending Lower Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls

To the detriment of the US Dollar, the pick-up in risk appetite has kept the US Dollar on the back-foot ahead of the US jobs report. Selling in the greenback may be exacerbated on a firm jobs report, thus allowing for EUR/USD to make a topside breach of 1.13 with GBP/USD extending on the recent 2% gains. However, with estimates skewed for gains, a softer than expected figure by quite some margin could provide a renewed bid in the greenback as risk sentiment stalls.

US Dollar Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

US Dollar Price Action Set for Non-Farm Payrolls

Source: IG

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES