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EUR/USD Rally Stalls Ahead of The Latest US Jobs Report

EUR/USD Rally Stalls Ahead of The Latest US Jobs Report

2020-07-02 11:25:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
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EUR/USD Price, News and Analysis:

  • EURUSD pushing ahead but traders are moving to the sidelines ahead of the US NFP release.
  • Last month’s US Labor Report saw a bewildering 2.5 million jobs added to the economy.
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EUR/USD Marking Time Ahead of The US Labor Report

Last month’s US nonfarm payroll report stunned the market with 2.5 million jobs added to the payroll compared to forecasts of around 7.5 million employees losing their jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 13.3% from a prior 14.7% in April, smashing expectations that the rate would touch 20%. Today’s report is forecast to show that 3 million jobs have been added, helping to lower the unemployment rate to 12.3%. A caveat to last month’s figures came in the BLS report which showed that due to potential miscalculation errors, the unemployment rate may have been three percentage points higher. Today’s report may shock as well and close attention should be paid to any revisions to last month’s numbers.

Today’s Eurozone unemployment rate came in better than expected at 7.4% compared to estimates of 7.7%, while this week’s final Eurozone manufacturing PMI also beat the flash estimate – 47.4 compared to 46.9. Recent better-than-expected data has underpinned the single currency but the upside remains limited until the Eurozone recovery fund gets given the green light by all member states.

EURUSD has picked up from yesterday’s low around 1.1185 and touched 1.1300 earlier today before nudging lower. The monthly low around 1.1168 may come under pressure if the NFP report beats and boosts the US dollar, especially if the lower swing highs made this month remain unbroken. If the pair are to push higher then 1.1350 needs to be broken to allow another run at the 1.1424 multi-month high made on June 10.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (December 2019 – July 2, 2020)

EUR/USD Rally Stalls Ahead of The Latest US Jobs Report
EUR/USD MIXED
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -6% 1% -1%
Weekly 11% 8% 9%
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What is your view on EUR/USD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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