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US Dollar vs Mexican Peso: USD/MXN Building A Breakout Pattern, Rate Decision Eyed

US Dollar vs Mexican Peso: USD/MXN Building A Breakout Pattern, Rate Decision Eyed

Nick Cawley, Strategist

US Dollar vs. Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Price, Analysis and Chart:

  • USD/MXN price action gearing up for the next move.
  • Fibonacci support may be under threat.

USD/MXN – Make or Break as Interest Rate Decision Nears

The recent USD/MXN decline has beenarrested in the last two weeks but the subsequent chart pattern is not giving a clear indication if this short-term move higher will continue or not. What looks likely is the recent series of lower highs and higher lows will collide soon and a breakout from this pattern is on the cards.

The Mexican Peso continues to be supported by a positive yield differential against the US dollar, although this continues to narrow. The Mexican key rate has been cut four times so far this year, from 7.25% to 5.50% and the Mexican central bank is likely to cut further as it continues its drive to boost the economy. Thursday’s Banco de Mexico meeting is expected to see the key rate cut by another 50bps to 5.0%, its lowest level since September 2016.

The pennant currently shown on the daily chart is suggesting that both bulls and bears are finding it difficult to take control of the market. The move back above the 20-dma (red line) suggest that short-term sentiment is positive but this narrative is being negated by a series of lower highs of the recent double-high between 22.91 and 22.95. Above here, both the 50-dma (blue line) at 22.96 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level may act as additional resistance. The downside sees potential support at 22.153 (50% Fib), the 20-dma at 22.17 and a cluster of old lows down to 22.12. With lower highs and higher lows being made, either support or resistance will be tested soon.

If you are interested in technical analysis, see our updated Education Centre for a comprehensive range of indicators and analytical articles.

USD/MXN Daily Price Chart (December 2019 - June 24, 2020)

US Dollar vs Mexican Peso: USD/MXN Building A Breakout Pattern, Rate Decision Eyed

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on USD/MXN – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.