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EUR/USD Trendless as Markets Wait for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Semi-Annual Testimony

EUR/USD Trendless as Markets Wait for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Semi-Annual Testimony

Nick Cawley, Strategist

EUR/USD Price, News and Analysis:

  • German ZEW improves for the third consecutive month.
  • US retail sales and Fed Powell will drive EUR/USD.
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EUR/USD Waiting for The Fed

Upcoming US retail sales data (13:30 UK) and the Fed chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress (15:00 UK) will drive the next short-term move in EUR/USD and will likely guide the pair for the weeks ahead. The US dollar is currently unable to grab any bullish traction after the Fed announced a USD250 billion plan to buy US corporate bonds, while US President Donald Trump is said to be to announcing a fresh USD1 trillion infrastructure plan to help boost the economy.

The June ZEW indicator of Economic Sentiment in Germany pushed higher for the third month in a row, while the Current Conditions indicator rose for the first time since January. The Euro-Zone Economic Sentiment indicator also jumped higher in June.

EUR/USD Trendless as Markets Wait for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Semi-Annual Testimony

Commentating on the German data, ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach noted that there was growing confidence that the economy ‘will bottom out by summer 2020’ while survey respondents expect ‘only a slow increase in economic activity in the third and fourth quarter’.

Ahead, the latest look at US consumer spending habits which are expected to show a sharp pick-up from last month. Month-on-month US retail sales are forecast to rise by 8% in May compared to a contraction of 16.4% in April. Annual sales are expected to turn further negative after last month’s -21.6% outturn.

Fed chair Jerome Powell will give his semi-annual testimony to Congress later today and is likely to be quizzed about the state of the US economy and the central bank’s latest bond buying announcement.

EUR/USD pushed higher Monday after the Fed’s latest announcement and is now treading water ahead of this afternoon’s data and Fed speak. Recent lows between 1.1213 and 1.1240 should provide an area of initial support ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1167. Recent highs guard the June 10 high at 1.1423, which if broken convincingly would leave the recent multi-month high at 1.1496 vulnerable.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (November 2019 – June 16, 2020)

EUR/USD Trendless as Markets Wait for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Semi-Annual Testimony
EUR/USD Bullish
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 4% 10% 8%
Weekly -12% 15% 3%
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What is your view on EUR/USD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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