News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here: https://t.co/J8WZ1JYXnX https://t.co/4mDGc8Bfd5
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/7Yd5Tzua0d
  • Do you know the difference between investing and trading? Because while the goal might seem the same, they're very different things . Learn more here.https://t.co/fG6fNEPj9q https://t.co/A0W3CA5EWh
  • The Canadian Dollar remains supported amid elevated crude oil prices. Don’t be surprised if the Bank of Canada disappoints aggressive hawkish expectations. Earnings season is a wildcard. Get your weekly Loonie forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/iyb5OmW2S4 https://t.co/Oh35VUg9Gr
  • Rather than focusing on earning a specific number of pips per day, traders need to focus on what can be controlled. In trading terms this relates to following a strategy perfectly, with no emotion or hesitation. Learn more here: https://t.co/6ZH026QLRN https://t.co/jQ9HH9KuWy
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here: https://t.co/Blrl0uF2Ct https://t.co/VXiNCuR3bF
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/9SC4I69oi7
  • The European Central Bank will consider it a job well done if there is no movement in EUR/USD or the Euro crosses before, during or after Thursday’s policy announcements by its Governing Council. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/TCTonpE9Ik https://t.co/qq6TTaPtLE
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts @ddubrovskyFX and @FxWestwater on JPY with our free Q4 market analysis guide, available for free today.https://t.co/mzeJ5x73N3 https://t.co/zll2sxL4ja
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/Js6SNdNj9y
ASX 200 Rally in Jeopardy as OECD Suggests Fiscal Stimulus Extension?

ASX 200 Rally in Jeopardy as OECD Suggests Fiscal Stimulus Extension?

Daniel Moss, Analyst

ASX 200, Australia, OECD Talking Points:

  • OECD suggests extension of fiscal stimulus packages “beyond their September expiry date”
  • ASX200 fails to breach ‘golden ratio’ resistance as technical indicators suggest rally may be running out of steam.
  • Weekly analysis reinforces the bearish tilt seen on the lower time frames.

The return of Australian consumer confidence to pre-crisis levels was unable to fuel the ASX 200’s rally to fresh-monthly highs as it followed its US counterparts lower overnight.

Investors may be spooked by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) bi-yearly report suggesting an extension of the fiscal support measures provide by the Australian government “beyond their September expiry date” to continue to support the local economy.

Considering the “JobKeeper wage subsidy is equivalent to over 3.5% of GDP,” the rapid return of economic production to pre-crisis levels could be paramount ahead of the September 27 deadline in order to sustain the ASX 200’s rally.

ASX 200 Price Daily Chart

Image of ASX 200 Price Daily Chart

Source – Trading View

The 61.8% Fibonacci (6,124), aka ‘the golden ratio’, continues to prove a formidable challenge for the ASX 200 as it attempts to clear former support-turned-resistance at the 2009 uptrend.

A Shooting Star candle on June 9 may invigorate sellers and drive price back to the uptrend extending from the March low (4,387), as buyers were unable to sustain a push above the 200-day moving average (6,094).

The reaction of RSI suggests a bearish bias, as the oscillator fails to burst into overbought territory and begins to fade towards three-month trend support.

Momentum is stagnating at its highest levels since the ASX pushed to April highs (5,590). This may reinforce the bearish bias displayed by price action and RSI, possibly resulting in a more aggressive correction towards a key region of interest at the 50% Fibonacci (5,792) and the monthly low (5,682).

Failure to hold support at the June low (5,682) could lead to a resumption of the primary downtrend, with a daily close through trend support carving a path back to the April high (5,590) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (5,461) of the yearly decline.

ASX 200 Price Weekly Chart

Image of ASX 200 Price Weekly Chart

Source – Trading View

Zooming out to a weekly chart and the premature formation of a bearish Shooting Star candle seems to support the bearish bias seen on the lower time frames.

Convergence of the 50-week moving average and 61.8% Fibonacci (6,124) has capped topside potential thus far, with a weekly close below the 200-MA (6,008) possibly leading to a reversal of the 12-week rally from the March low (4,387).

Once again, RSI may prove to be an early indication of future direction, as it fades prior to the bullish region above 60.

RSI snapping its constructive trend may reinvigorate sellers and carve a path for price to retest support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2009 bull market (5,640), with a more aggressive decline possibly carving a path back to the May low (5,166).

-- Written by Daniel Moss

Follow me on Twitter @DanielGMoss

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES