British Pound (GBP) – Lockdown Talks and GBP/USD Forecast, Chart and Analysis:
- Lockdown measures may be eased shortly.
- GBPUSD running into moving average resistance, FTSE 100 fills the gap.
GBP/USD Upside Stifled by 200-DMA
The UK COVID-19 fatality and infection rates continue to fall and UK PM Boris Johnson is now said to be looking at easing current lockdown measures earlier than originally indicated, with more details expected this week. The government is also considering cutting the social distancing measure of two metres in half to help the ailing pubs and restaurant sector. According to reports, government ministers warned that unless these measures are put in place, up to 3.5 million workers in the services sector could lose their jobs. The UK COVID-19 fatality rate rose by 77 on Sunday, the lowest daily figure since lockdown measures were put in place.
Sterling is little changed at the start of the week and GBP/USD may well struggle to move appreciably higher in the short-term. The US dollar is now picking up a small bid, aided by rising US Treasury yields, and the heavy sell-off in the greenback looks to have stalled for now. GBP/USD tested, and rejected, the 200-day moving average on Friday at 1.2734 and while the pair remain overbought – using the CCI indicator – GBP/USD is likely to consolidate around current levels. Looking ahead, the main event of the week is Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, and this is likely to steer the greenback this week. At April’s meeting Jerome Powell painted a bleak picture of the US economy and his post-monetary decision commentary on Wednesday will need to be parsed carefully.
GBP/USD Daily Price Chart ( 2019 – June 8, 2020)
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -7% | 6% | -4% |
| Weekly | -11% | -6% | -9% |
The FTSE 100 opened above the gap created in early March and is now likely to form a near-term trading range between 6,233 (50% Fib) and 6,577 (62.8% Fib).
FTSE 100 Daily Price Chart (December 2019 – June 8, 2020)
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