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British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP/USD Increasingly Nervous About Brexit

British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP/USD Increasingly Nervous About Brexit

2020-06-04 08:10:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
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GBP price, Brexit news and analysis:

  • GBP/USD is easing back Thursday after a week of gains as the June 30 deadline for the UK to ask for an extension of its Brexit transition period approaches.
  • So far, there has been little progress in this week’s UK-EU talks on a post-Brexit trade deal but the UK Prime Minister has pledged not to ask for a talks extension to prevent the UK from concluding the transition period at the year-end without a trade agreement.
  • A poll has suggested that GBP will weaken if no extension is asked for.

GBP/USD facing Brexit risks

Talks this week between the UK and the EU on a deal to govern trade between them once the post-Brexit transition period concludes at the end of this year continue to show few signs of progress. However, there are still no indications that the UK government will ask for an extension of the talks to prevent the transition period from ending without a trade agreement.

The deadline for the UK to ask for an extension is June 30 and there are fears that if the UK does not do so it will have to trade with the EU under World Trade Organization rules from the start of next year – and that prospect would likely weaken GBP.

GBP/USD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (February 17 – June 4, 2020)

Latest GBP/USD price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

GBP/USD BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -9% 5% -2%
Weekly -15% 6% -5%
What does it mean for price action?
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As the chart above shows, GBP/USD has been rising as a lifting of coronavirus lockdowns, hopes of a global economic recovery and continuing central bank stimulus has attracted investors to so-called risk assets such as stocks and currencies like GBP, EUR and AUD.

However, if June 30 passes without a request for an extension, GBP will likely drop back. Concerns about this were heightened Wednesday when the Bank of England said commercial banks should prepare for the possibility ofno deal in the post-Brexit trade talks.It is fundamental to the Bank of Englands remit that it prepares the UK financial system for all risks that it might face, the BoE said in a statement.

Moreover, a poll by the Reuters news agency has suggested that Sterling will lose its recent gains against the US Dollar and weaken further if the UK does not ask for an extension to its Brexit transition period by the June 30 deadline to allow more time for the talks on a trade deal with the EU.

GBP/USD is expected to have weakened to 1.23 by the end of June, according to the poll this week of more than 50 foreign exchange strategists. However, GBP/USD bears should also note that any hint of a deal would likely lift the pair again.

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We look at Sterling regularly in the DailyFX Trading Global Markets Decoded podcasts that you can find here on Apple or wherever you go for your podcasts

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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