News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/HOvzuOICQx
  • Ever wonder if there are other chart types that can be sued for technical analysis? HLOC charts are discussed in the following article as well as their pros and cons. Learn more here: https://t.co/qV3c7a4YR3 https://t.co/32hYzqhuZ9
  • The Australian Dollar sits on the crossroads of Treasury yields, the S&P 500 and US fiscal stimulus expectations. Will $AUDUSD gains slow? Chinese Q4 GDP and Australian jobs data are due. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/BsYmmWFYOH https://t.co/HhLqb2iVgk
  • #Gold prices have come under significant pressure to kick-off 2021. However, the formation of bullish technical patterns across multiple timeframes suggests that a rebound higher may be at hand. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/Dpf8N4Fh0T https://t.co/pnZpnM9yT5
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/yCtLFemdNc
  • GBP underpinned as BoE downplays negative rates, alongside vaccine rollout. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/n6V6uw0XV5 https://t.co/Toq2fxSdBE
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/5VzSt5Ak7R
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/Jkv0onMyZw
  • Why is JPY called a safe haven? What are some factors in its favor this quarter? Get your free forecast here: https://t.co/mzeJ5x73N3 #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/S4bwgGZxmw
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/T3W8CIg5iy
Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD Levels to Watch For the Week Ahead

Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD Levels to Watch For the Week Ahead

2020-05-22 08:03:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst

Australian Dollar Analysis and Talking Points

AUD/USD | Vulnerable to Sharp Retracement on US-China Tensions

As risk sentiment takes a turn lower, high-beta currencies such as the Australian Dollar has been among the underperformers. As we highlighted earlier in the week, RORO flows (Risk On/Risk Off) have driven short-term price action and today looks to be no exception, among the reasons behind this, is due to the rising correlation between currency markets and risk appetite (S&P 500). That said, with the unwind of stock market optimism as tensions between the US-China boil over, after China announced that it would impose new national-security laws on Hong Kong, the Australian Dollar may have seen a short-term top at 0.6600.

AUD/USD BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 3% -13% -6%
Weekly 14% -8% 1%
Learn how to use Sentiment in your trading strategy
Get My Guide

When looking at the signal for US-China tensions, it is key to watch the Chinese Yuan as a barometer for market sentiment. Overnight, the Offshore Yuan (CNH) had come under notable selling with USD/CNH edging towards the late April highs of 7.16, a break above would likely leave the relatively elevated Australian Dollar vulnerable to a sharper retracement from its recent highs.

Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Recommended by Justin McQueen
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Get My Guide

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook

On the downside, prior resistance, now support is situated at 0.6494, which marks the 100DMA. A break below leaves AUD/USD at risk of a larger drop towards 0.6450, however, for confirmation of a short-term top at 0.6600, a closing break below 0.6400 would be needed. On the upside, a bounce-back would likely be capped at 0.6600 before key resistance in the form of the 200DMA residing at 0.6660. Given the rising tensions between the US and China, the Australian Dollar appears to be vulnerable at current levels. Bias is to the downside, however, 0.6400 handle is key for further shakeout of recent longs.

Implied Weekly range (0.6420-0.6600)

Support

Resistance

0.6494

100DMA

0.6600

-

0.6450

-

0.6616

Weekly High

0.6400-10

76.4% Fib

0.6660

200DMA

AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD Levels to Watch For the Week Ahead

Source: IG Charts

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES