News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 1.89% France 40: 1.31% FTSE 100: 0.64% Wall Street: 0.29% US 500: 0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/rLpWPZ6zAd
  • The S&P 500 remains contained in the upward channel it has been building the past couple of months, but could be ready to leave its confines soon. Get your S&P500 market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/NhLsK6eaTR https://t.co/Ncpt1BDa9m
  • $GBPUSD rose back above 1.3700 after slipping to near 1.3600 earlier this morning. The pair is currently trading near the two year high of 1.3746 set last week. $GBP $USD https://t.co/eVs7TM2MRy
  • 🇺🇸 House Price Index MoM (NOV) Actual: 1% Previous: 1.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-26
  • $NZDUSD breakout from the cup and handle https://t.co/EuuD7kFDVP https://t.co/sRWddpl0Fa
  • The US Dollar has fallen to an intraday low, with the $DXY dropping from near 90.50 this morning to currently trade around 90.23. $USD https://t.co/6VsugU22zH
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 House Price Index MoM (NOV) due at 14:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 1.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-26
  • IMF Chief Economist Gopinath: - Biden stimulus plan could boost US GDP by 1.25% in 2021, 5% over three years $USD $SPY
  • A forex trader is strategic, disciplined and always switched on to the markets. Learn how to build an FX mindset here: https://t.co/tB3aAErd70 https://t.co/NNiBgseFks
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 69.78%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/rNkuS2lyXK
Crude Oil Outlook - CFTC Advises Vigilance Over Possible Negative Pricing

Crude Oil Outlook - CFTC Advises Vigilance Over Possible Negative Pricing

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Crude Oil Price, Chart and Outlook.

  • June WTI contract expires on Tuesday, May 19.
  • Lack of storage sent May WTI contract into record negative territory.
Oil - US Crude BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -6% 5% 0%
Weekly -11% 1% -5%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

US Crude Oil Traders Remain Wary Ahead of Futures Expiration

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sent out an advisory note on Wednesday May 13, warning members that ‘certain contracts may continue to experience extreme market volatility, low liquidity and possibly negative pricing’ as expiry dates near. The note highlighted the negative pricing experienced in the May WTI contract on April 20, one day before the contract expired. The price of the May WTI contract hit a record low of -$40/bbl. that day as traders unable to take physical delivery of oil sold at any price. The WTI contract specifies that traders who hold futures at expiry must take delivery.

CFTC Advisory Note

The latest turnover figures seen on the CME suggest that traders are aware of the potential problems ahead and have moved out of the front month contract already, with volume in the July contract around six times that seen in the June contract.

Crude Oil Outlook - CFTC Advises Vigilance Over Possible Negative Pricing

Prices and Volumes via CME.

Understanding the Core Fundamentals of Oil Trading
Understanding the Core Fundamentals of Oil Trading
Recommended by Nick Cawley
Understanding the Core Fundamentals of Oil Trading
Get My Guide

Looking at the daily US Crude chart – based on the two most liquid front-month contracts the sharp rally from the April 20 low looks to be running out of steam. This week’s trading range has contracted sharply, although a series of recent higher lows continues to underpin the market. A break and close below $23.90/bbl. would wipe out the last week’s gains and leave the 50-dma at $23.56/bbl. and the 20-dma at $21.45/bbl. vulnerable. To continue the current positive sentiment, crude needs to close above $27.40/bbl.

US Crude Oil Daily Price Chart (November 2019 – May 14, 2020)

Crude Oil Outlook - CFTC Advises Vigilance Over Possible Negative Pricing

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Crude Oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES