We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • EU ready to drop maximalist approach to fisheries negotiations with the UK in the next round of Brexit talks (June 1st-5th), according to sources
  • USDMXN leaning on 50% Fib retracement - lower highs and lower lows still dominant. #usdmxn #mexicanpeso @DailyFXTeam https://t.co/GzYTHx7trp
  • $AUDUSD: empuje alcista en medio de dos fuerzas oponentes #aud #usd #trading https://t.co/jsKHvIOLK7
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.65%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 75.34%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/GoPpkxvdpw
  • Heads Up:🇵🇱 Unemployment Rate due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 5.7% Previous: 5.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-26
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.87% Silver: 1.45% Gold: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/D211ny6ORL
  • The commodity currencies, AUD, CAD, and NZD, which typically benefit from their higher yield profile relative to other currencies (the carry trade), no longer hold this advantage. Get your #currencies market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/3oWXhp0hCX https://t.co/JKzhDb4mBd
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.70% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.70% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.63% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.35% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.20% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/dJEKnTJHQS
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 1.50% Germany 30: 1.39% FTSE 100: 0.95% Wall Street: 0.89% US 500: 0.66% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/ouTm0aMRaC
  • FTSE @ 6,150...just 80 points away from the early March gap...#ftse #stocks @DailyFXTeam https://t.co/X95auU1GC8
Crude Oil Outlook - CFTC Advises Vigilance Over Possible Negative Pricing

Crude Oil Outlook - CFTC Advises Vigilance Over Possible Negative Pricing

2020-05-14 08:28:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
Share:

Crude Oil Price, Chart and Outlook.

  • June WTI contract expires on Tuesday, May 19.
  • Lack of storage sent May WTI contract into record negative territory.
Oil - US Crude BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 9% -5% 3%
Weekly 5% -10% -1%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

US Crude Oil Traders Remain Wary Ahead of Futures Expiration

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sent out an advisory note on Wednesday May 13, warning members that ‘certain contracts may continue to experience extreme market volatility, low liquidity and possibly negative pricing’ as expiry dates near. The note highlighted the negative pricing experienced in the May WTI contract on April 20, one day before the contract expired. The price of the May WTI contract hit a record low of -$40/bbl. that day as traders unable to take physical delivery of oil sold at any price. The WTI contract specifies that traders who hold futures at expiry must take delivery.

CFTC Advisory Note

The latest turnover figures seen on the CME suggest that traders are aware of the potential problems ahead and have moved out of the front month contract already, with volume in the July contract around six times that seen in the June contract.

Crude Oil Outlook - CFTC Advises Vigilance Over Possible Negative Pricing

Prices and Volumes via CME.

Understanding the Core Fundamentals of Oil Trading
Understanding the Core Fundamentals of Oil Trading
Recommended by Nick Cawley
Understanding the Core Fundamentals of Oil Trading
Get My Guide

Looking at the daily US Crude chart – based on the two most liquid front-month contracts the sharp rally from the April 20 low looks to be running out of steam. This week’s trading range has contracted sharply, although a series of recent higher lows continues to underpin the market. A break and close below $23.90/bbl. would wipe out the last week’s gains and leave the 50-dma at $23.56/bbl. and the 20-dma at $21.45/bbl. vulnerable. To continue the current positive sentiment, crude needs to close above $27.40/bbl.

US Crude Oil Daily Price Chart (November 2019 – May 14, 2020)

Crude Oil Outlook - CFTC Advises Vigilance Over Possible Negative Pricing

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Crude Oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.