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Gold Struggles With Trend Resistance Ahead of Key Fed Speech

Gold Struggles With Trend Resistance Ahead of Key Fed Speech

2020-05-13 11:00:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
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Gold Price (XAU/USD) Analysis, Price and Chart

  • Gold’s short-term price action remains constricted.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech may drive the next move.
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Gold Waits For Fed Chair Powell's Speech

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is speaking at a virtual event today at 13:00 GMT and his words will be closely scrutinized by the market for any hints of further fiscal policy to help re-boot the ailing US economy. In recent days a number of FOMC members have downplayed the prospect of negative interest rates but have stressed that more needs to be done to help the economy. One possible tool that is getting increased airtime is yield curve control and the Fed Chair may well discuss this further today. If the Fed commits to keeping medium- to long-term interest rates capped for a set period of time, the US dollar may well struggle to make any further meaningful upside.

The price of gold continues to be driven by risk sentiment and the value of the US dollar and any sell-off in the greenback on the back of Powell’s commentary may boost the precious metal back towards recent highs. In addition, market’s are currently in a risk-off phase as US-China relations continue to sour, and any further escalation will see safe-haven assets like gold firmly underpinned.

The daily gold chart shows the precious metal trading either side of the downtrend started in mid-April. This trendline was broken last week but gold did not open above trend resistance until today. There are also a series of higher lows over the last month, suggesting that positive sentiment continues to build, pointing to a break higher. Any sell-off will find encounter a cluster of recent lows all the way down to $1,680/oz. which should hold in the short-term. If gold trades here, then the supportive trendline will be broken and a close and open below this trend may open up further losses. If gold receives a further bid, $1,724/oz. is the likely first target, ahead of $1,740/oz. and the April 14 high a $1,747/oz.

Gold Daily Price Chart (December 2019 – May 13, 2020)

Gold Struggles With Trend Resistance Ahead of Key Fed Speech
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What is your view on Gold – are you bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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