News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.93% Silver: -1.67% Oil - US Crude: -2.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/zljwnQwRbk
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/GgrFV6rChg
  • Prior to the oil blockade in January, Libya had been producing circa 1.1mbpd https://t.co/ZS6LPcKbyF
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.42% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.23% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.39% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.50% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.58% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.65% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/0EqnRHMZJ3
  • Libya has restarted oil production by 90kbpd and will resume an extra 220kbpd on September 24th, according to sources #OOTT
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -1.50% Wall Street: -1.78% France 40: -3.30% Germany 30: -3.41% FTSE 100: -3.62% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/2G6XT0J6v5
  • Tune in to @nickcawley1 's #webinar at 6:30 AM ET/10:30 AM GMT to prepare for key UK events and markets in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/xewSeUoDaT https://t.co/I8N4F5SmRK
  • Germany 30 IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long Germany 30 for the first time since Sep 08, 2020 when Germany 30 traded near 12,883.80. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Germany 30 weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/PrXKfwUQbT
  • UK's Hancock says final decisions have not been taken in response to surge in COVID cases $GBP
  • #SP500 futures tumbling through Bear Flag support at the 3300 mark. Implied measured move suggests a push to 3000 could be on the cards if price breaks below the June high (3231.25) $ES $SPX https://t.co/o26aOMmin8 https://t.co/pS7A9CVmt6
EUR/USD Outlook Remains Bleak as ECB Forecasters Predict Economic Slump

EUR/USD Outlook Remains Bleak as ECB Forecasters Predict Economic Slump

2020-05-04 09:40:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
Share:

ECB Survey and EUR/USD Price, News and Analysis:

  • Euro Area real GDP slashed to -5.5% for 2020 but jumping to 4.3% in 2021
  • EUR/USD unable to gain any positive traction.
Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Nick Cawley
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

ECB Survey Shows 2020 GDP Turning Heavily Negative.

According to the latest ECB survey, the Euro Area economy will contract by 5.5% in Q1, sharply lower than last quarters report when the block was expected to grow by 1.1% this year. Today’s report also showed a sharp bounce in 2021 GDP growth to 4.3% from 1.2%, driven higher by the impact of ‘mitigation measures’. The survey also showed unemployment rising to 9.4% this year from 7.5%, while inflation is expected to fall to 0.8% from 1.2% in the Q1 report.

EUR/USD Outlook Remains Bleak as ECB Forecasters Predict Economic Slump

Results of the Q2 2020 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters.

The Euro Area Markit manufacturing PMI final released earlier today just missed last week’s preliminary reading, printing at 33.4 versus 33.6 and 44.5 in March. According to data provider Markit, output, new orders, export sales and purchasing activity ‘all fell at record rates, whilst supply side constraints intensified to an unprecedented extent. Confidence about the future sank to a fresh series low’. German factory orders (March) are released on Wednesday at 07:00 UK and are expected to slump to -10.0% from -1.4% in February.

For all market moving data and events please see the DailyFX calendar.

The Euro continues to slip lower after touching a 1.1018 one-month high last Thursday. Last week’s rally was driven by month-end portfolio rebalancing with strong demand for the Euro and notable USD sellers. The 200-dma also acted as resistance to the rally and looks likely to stem any further attempt at the upside. EUR/USD has also broken back below the 50-dma and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0965. A cluster of old highs and the 20-dma between 1.0910 and 1.0882 should act as preliminary support.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (October 2019 – April 30, 2020)

EUR/USD Outlook Remains Bleak as ECB Forecasters Predict Economic Slump
EUR/USD MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 6% -2% 1%
Weekly -22% 4% -7%
Learn How to Use Sentiment in Your Trading Strategy
Get My Guide

What is your view on EUR/USD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2020/html/ecb.pr200504~612d47efe4.en.html

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES