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S&P 500 Outlook: Sell in May and Go Away?

S&P 500 Outlook: Sell in May and Go Away?

2020-05-01 09:30:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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S&P 500 Price Analysis & News

  • S&P 500 | Biggest Surge Since 1987, Risks Remain However
  • Sell in May and Go Away?
  • US vs China 2.0

S&P 500 | Biggest Surge Since 1987, Risks Remain However

April Surge: The past month saw a significant rebound in risk appetite stemming from a plethora of open-ended QE, governments loosening fiscal policy, alongside a slowing in the spread of coronavirus, prompting economies to look at re-opening. In turn, the S&P 500 posted its best month since 1987.

US 500 BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 7% 0% 3%
Weekly 16% -4% 4%
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Sell in May and Go Away?: As is typically the case every year, there is a flurry of questions over the quote “Sell in May and Go Away”. However, looking back at the past 20 years, this has only been true 50% of the time with the largest drawdown taking place in 2010. That said, in light of the surge in risk sentiment over the last month, the rebound may be somewhat exhausted given that the outlook over the potential recovery remains uncertain. This has been apparent with many central bank officials walking back on the idea of a “V” shaped recovery, which has seemingly been priced in equity markets.

Sell in May and Go Away is a 50/50

S&P 500 Outlook: Sell in May and Go Away?

US vs China 2.0: Overnight, risk assets have taken a slight hit as US President Trump threatened to place retaliatory tariffs on China over the coronavirus outbreak, which in turn presents fresh downside risks for the S&P 500, particularly as there is a potential for China to step up their war of words in response. (Eyes on China’s mouthpiece, the Global Times).

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S&P Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

S&P 500 Outlook: Sell in May and Go Away?

Source: IG Charts

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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