Australian Dollar Analysis and Talking Points
AUD/USD | Facing Key Resistance
After two consecutive weekly gains, this week has seen a slight change in fortune for the Australian Dollar with the currency easing marginally by 0.2%. Momentum indicators are bullishly aligned for AUD/USD, however, trend signals are relatively weak, suggesting that upside in the pair may be capped. That said, we see topside resistance situated at 0.6407, which marks the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. Failure to break leaves the pair vulnerable to a pullback with initial support seen at 0.6350.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 8% | -32% | -2% |
| Weekly | -1% | -18% | -5% |
We are also cognisant of the fact that the relief rally throughout the majority of April has in large part supported the recovery in the Aussie. As such, a turn lower in the Australian Dollar would need confirmation from a pullback across equity markets, particularly
Correlation Between AUD/USD and S&P 500 Back on the Rise
For next week, there will be a plethora of key events on the economic calendar, most notably, monetary policy meetings by the Fed and ECB. On the data front, market participants will digest Chinese PMI, and US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Implied Weekly range (0.6230-0.6470)
| Support | Resistance | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6350 | - | 0.6400 | - |
| 0.6313 | 50DMA | 0.6407 | 76.4% Fib |
| 0.6236 | 61.8% Fib | 0.6440 | April Peak |
AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame
Source: IG Charts
--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX
