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Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD Levels to Watch For the Week Ahead

Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD Levels to Watch For the Week Ahead

Justin McQueen, Analyst

Australian Dollar Analysis and Talking Points

AUD/USD | Facing Key Resistance

After two consecutive weekly gains, this week has seen a slight change in fortune for the Australian Dollar with the currency easing marginally by 0.2%. Momentum indicators are bullishly aligned for AUD/USD, however, trend signals are relatively weak, suggesting that upside in the pair may be capped. That said, we see topside resistance situated at 0.6407, which marks the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. Failure to break leaves the pair vulnerable to a pullback with initial support seen at 0.6350.

AUD/USD BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -12% 6% -3%
Weekly -4% 7% 2%
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We are also cognisant of the fact that the relief rally throughout the majority of April has in large part supported the recovery in the Aussie. As such, a turn lower in the Australian Dollar would need confirmation from a pullback across equity markets, particularly

Correlation Between AUD/USD and S&P 500 Back on the Rise

Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD Levels to Watch For the Week Ahead

For next week, there will be a plethora of key events on the economic calendar, most notably, monetary policy meetings by the Fed and ECB. On the data front, market participants will digest Chinese PMI, and US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Implied Weekly range (0.6230-0.6470)

Support

Resistance

0.6350

-

0.6400

-

0.6313

50DMA

0.6407

76.4% Fib

0.6236

61.8% Fib

0.6440

April Peak

AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

Australian Dollar Forecast: Key AUD/USD Levels to Watch For the Week Ahead

Source: IG Charts

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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