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USD/CAD Forecast: Canadian Dollar Recovers with Crude Oil Price

USD/CAD Forecast: Canadian Dollar Recovers with Crude Oil Price

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

CANADIAN DOLLAR FORECAST: USD/CAD PRICE EDGES LOWER AFTER REJECTION AT RESISTANCE, CRUDE OIL REBOUNDS

  • Spot USD/CAD price action comes under pressure after failing to top a major technical resistance level
  • The Canadian Dollar selloff stabilizes as negative crude oil prices turn positive
  • USD/CAD could snap back higher if coronavirus-battered economic data on deck for release recharges US Dollar demand

USD/CAD comes under fire as the Canadian Dollar rebounds with crude oil prices. Spot USD/CAD price action has drifted lower by more than 100-pips since Monday’s swing high and coincides with a rejection near the 1.4200 handle.

USD/CAD BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 16% -43% -7%
Weekly 17% -27% 2%
What does it mean for price action?
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USD/CAD has notched a series of lower highs since the March 18 peak, but the major currency pair also seems to have formed a short-term trendline of support connecting the April 13 and April 20 lows. As such, spot USD/CAD looks relatively confined between the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and mid-point of its recent bearish leg.

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USD/CAD PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (16 MARCH 2020 TO 22 APRIL 2020)

USDCAD Price Chart US Dollar to Canadian Dollar Forecast Crude Oil

Perhaps high-impact economic data on deck for release later this week, like jobless claims and flash PMIs from IHS Markit due Thursday, might catalyze the next big move in USD/CAD. On that note, spot USD/CAD price action has potential to spike back toward month-to-date highs if another wave of risk aversion pushes traders into safe-haven currencies and boosts US Dollar demand.

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Conversely, market participants may remain forward looking and continue the influx of coronavirus optimism as COVID-19 lockdowns come to an end and guidelines are outlined for restarting economic activity. This could facilitate a protracted drift lower in USD/CAD as the Canadian Dollar recovers with crude oil prices and general risk appetite.

Keep Reading – US Dollar & VIX Index Climb; Stock Market Rally at Wits End?

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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