We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.29% Gold: -0.73% Silver: -1.32% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/rsa9fXyvQe
  • $USDJPY Daily Pivot Points: S3: 106.83 S2: 107.22 S1: 107.44 R1: 107.82 R2: 107.99 R3: 108.37 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • The #Dow Jones, #Nasdaq and S&P 500 have continued to melt higher in recent days even as bullish catalysts seem to sputter out. Get your #equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/wXSP3avXh1 https://t.co/Zpnzxf9vj8
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.98%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 73.85%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/CxeodwV5yt
  • US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/live_events/2020/06/02/US-Dollar-Price-Action-Setups-JS-EUR-USD-USD-CAD-USD-JPY.html https://t.co/mfp3Q7wwNu
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.73% France 40: 0.71% FTSE 100: 0.33% Wall Street: -0.01% US 500: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/qisyRbrKX6
  • China is increasingly aggressive in targeting technology according to official - BBG
  • The Mexican Peso rally has taken USD/MXN below a key support pivot in price and leaves the pair vulnerable to further losses heading into June trade. Get your $USDMXN technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/lhWwu2KbbN https://t.co/dJe9DGskq0
  • Canada auto sales down 44% YoY for May - BBG
  • Commodities Update: NYM WTI Crude 36.75 (+3.70%), ICE Brent Crude 39.46 (+2.97%), NYM NYH Gasoline 111.54 (+4.57%). [delayed]
Negative Crude Oil Prices Amid Historic Capitulation: Cross Asset Correlation

Negative Crude Oil Prices Amid Historic Capitulation: Cross Asset Correlation

2020-04-21 10:25:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

CAD, AUD, GBP, S&P 500 Analysis & News

  • Historic Oil Collapse as Prices Go Negative
  • Storage Capacity Concerns Weigh on June Contract
  • Commodity Currencies Remain Skewed to the Downside

Negative Oil Prices: Yesterday will mark a historic day that for the first time, crude oil prices were negative. The beginning of Monday’s session saw WTI crude May futures trading just shy of $19, before settling at circa -$38/bbl after the largest one day plummet in history. While the oversupply and demand destruction factors continue to paint a very bleak picture for oil prices, the plunge can largely be explained through technical factors.

May Contract: The current front-month contract is for crude delivered in May, which is due to expire today at 1930BST. Given that WTI futures contracts are settled through physical delivery, buyers of the contract will have to take physical delivery of the oil if no buyers are found before expiry. As such, positions typically roll-over to the next contract, in this case the June contract.

However, with inventories nearing full storage capacity, physical buyers in the market have been lacking and thus speculators have been unable to offload their oil position. As such, oil prices are in free-fall making negative oil prices a reality, which in turn means that front-month contract holders are paying someone to take them out of their positions before expiry.

Oil - US Crude MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 2% 2% 2%
Weekly -13% -3% -10%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

Storage Capacity Filling Up: Of note, the US Department of Energy recently stated that around 55mln barrels of oil had been stored near the Cushing terminal. That said, with the touted full capacity at 79mln barrels, storage capacity concerns are likely to rise next month, which in turn raises the likelihood that the June contract will come under significant pressure, which has been evident in today’s session

Commodity Currencies: Falling oil prices favours CAD downside against the Japanese Yen and US Dollar.

USD/CAD BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 4% 10% 7%
Weekly 5% 9% 7%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

Net Oil Exporters: These currencies tend to weaken when oil prices drop: CAD, NOK, MXN, RUB

Net Oil Importers: These currencies tend to benefit when oil prices drop: JPY, EUR, KRW, ZAR, INR, TRY, CNY, IDR

Looking Ahead: API Crude Oil Inventories Report scheduled after US close.

Cross-Asset CorrelationMatrix(1 Week, 1 Month & 3 Month Timeframe)

Negative Crude Oil Prices Amid Historic Capitulation: Cross Asset CorrelationNegative Crude Oil Prices Amid Historic Capitulation: Cross Asset CorrelationNegative Crude Oil Prices Amid Historic Capitulation: Cross Asset Correlation

Source: Refinitiv, DailyFX. The Topix is used a proxy for the Nikkei 225.

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.