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EUR/USD Remains Fragile After Mixed German ZEW Data

EUR/USD Remains Fragile After Mixed German ZEW Data

2020-04-21 09:29:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
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ZEW Data, EUR/USD Price, News and Analysis:

  • German ZEW survey – economic sentiment sharply higher, current situation slumps.
  • EUR/USD remains weak and may re-test 1.0800.
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EUR/USD Little Changed After German ZEW Data

The latest German ZEW data showing sentiment picking up in the largest Euro-Zone member, jumping to 28.2 from a prior reading of -49.5 in March and expectations of -42.3. The current situation reading however fell further to -91.5 compared to a prior -43.1 and a forecast of -75.

“The financial market experts are beginning to see a light at the end of the very long tunnel. The results of the special questions on the coronavirus crisis included in the survey show that the experts do not expect to see positive economic growth until the third quarter of 2020. Economic output is not expected to return to pre-corona levels before 2022,” wrote ZEW president Professor Achim Wambach.

ZEW Press Release

On Wednesday this week, the latest Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence data for April will be released at 14:00 GMT with markets forecasting a fall to minus 20 compared to a prior reading of -11.6. On Thursday, the closely watched Markit PMIs will be released and are expected to show further losses. The March Euro-Zone Composite PMI reading recorded its biggest ever single monthly fall to hit a survey record low of 29.7 and Thursday’s preliminary April reading is forecast to hit 25.9.

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The Euro remains weak and currently trades around 1.0840 against the US dollar. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0839 is now in play and a break and close below here would open up the April 6 swing low at 1.0768 ahead of the multi-year low at 1.0636. A break back above 1.0900 will need either a positive Euro driver or a weaker US dollar.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (October 2019 – April 21, 2020)

EUR/USD Remains Fragile After Mixed German ZEW Data
EUR/USD BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 3% -14% -7%
Weekly 18% -5% 4%
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What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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