News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here: https://t.co/vGx8HCagF5 https://t.co/4DGXwA8vqs
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/mAMhWbV6Jy
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/E9ZmJvqO0z
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/fqxw1AoKc1
  • Gold snapped a two-week losing streak but keeps price within the broader August downtrend. These are the levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/B3Jct6mIBD https://t.co/xTGIM2hRBv
  • $GBPUSD continues to move higher, despite Friday’s weakness, as vaccination hopes continue to fuel positive sentiment despite ongoing lockdown fears and downbeat UK data. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/S8UoHzOwFN https://t.co/qI6UZdggvM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/6wxX6oQurn
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/w009tJEQZn
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/2AeO1AdD2M
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/INJz4NSugQ
S&P 500 Outlook: Peak in VIX Does Not Mean Equity Market Bottom

S&P 500 Outlook: Peak in VIX Does Not Mean Equity Market Bottom

Justin McQueen, Analyst

S&P 500 Price Analysis & News

  • S&P 500 | Ominous IMF Report Dismissed
  • VIX Peak Does Not Coincide with Market Bottom
  • Risk Barometer Not Confirming Risk Rally

How to Invest During a Recession: Investments & Strategy

S&P 500 | Ominous IMF Report Dismissed

Despite yesterday’s ominous economic outlook from the IMF the S&P 500 had continued its uptrend, surging over 3%. However, we would like to add that the IMF’s stark warning is largely what market participants expect, given that equity markets saw its fastest bear market in history. In turn, focus in the near-term remains on the extent of the lockdowns across several countries, alongside the unprecedented economic stimulus. This has particularly been the case from the Federal Reserve where their balance sheet has ballooned by $1.7 trillion over the past month to total a record $6.13 trillion.

How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
Recommended by Justin McQueen
Improve your trading with IG Client Sentiment Data
Get My Guide

VIX Peak: In our weekly outlook, we highlighted that while risk assets had been finding comfort from the pullback volatility, the peak in the VIX does not necessarily correspond with a bottom in the market. This had been notably evident in the global financial crisis, as such, while the VIX can continue to head lower, so to can the risk assets.

Figure 1. VIX Peak Does Not Coincide with Market Bottom

VIX and market bottom April 15th

OPEC Disappointment: As present, risk assets have been under pressure throughout the session amid weakness in the energy complex. Oil prices have continued its slide with WTI crude dipping below $20/bbl and looking to test 2002 levels, despite OPEC’s historic production cut (down as much as 30% since last weeks high). However, given that the OPEC cut had been less than expectations, oil prices have remained weak, while IEA provided yet another reminder that the current production cut is not enough to offset the near-term demand losses. As such, a persistent move lower in oil prices would be expected to place additional pressure on equity markets.

Risk-barometer: As defensive stocks continue to outperform cyclical stocks (Figure 2)we raise doubts over the longevity of the rebound in the S&P 500 and thus see a short term reversal in the index.

Figure 2. Risk Barometer Not Confirming Risk Rally

SP 500 RISK BAROMETER ARPIL 15TH

S&P 500 Levels

Having broken above 2800, which we previously touted as the inflection point. A period of consolidation above would be needed to raise scope for another leg higher with a closing break above 2890 needed for confirmation. However, given the weakness across the equity space, 2800 looks to be tested on the downside, which in turn leaves the index at risk of extending a move towards support at 2730.

S&P 500 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

SP 500 DAILY APRIL 15TH

Source: IG Charts

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES