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  • Gold prices have plunged more than 5.1% off the September highs with the sell-off taking XAU/USD back into key technical support. Get your $XAUUSUD market update from @MBForex here:
  • WTI higher by almost 2% as global energy prices continue to rise $CL $CL_F #Oil
  • Higher global natural gas prices could hint to a near-term increase in US exports - Moody's via BBG $NG $NG_F
  • WTO crude is on pace to put in its highest session close in three years. If it clears 76, it will be a far bigger technical event. $CL_F weekly chart below
  • Fed's Williams: - It is reasonable for the taper to be completed by mid-2022 - I recognize that inflation is currently elevated
  • Both USD/CHF and USD/SEK rates appear poised for most upside in the near-term, while surging energy prices may be offering a different route for USD/NOK. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • Fed's Williams: - Optimistic that the economy will allow an "imminent" taper - Elevated levels of uncertainty make forecasting difficult
  • Gold Price Outlook: #Gold Drops into Pivotal Support- $XAUUSD Levels -
  • Fitch Ratings: - We do not expect the advent of a new gov't in Germany to produce a significant change in near-term economic prospects - Expect sound fiscal policies following German elections, with a focus on sustainability of public debt
  • The USD is trading in an ascending triangle formation, marked by horizontal resistance around the 2021 highs to go along with bullish trendline support. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Rebound Struggles as Bearish Chart Formation Builds

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Rebound Struggles as Bearish Chart Formation Builds

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Gold Price Outlook, Price and Chart

  • US dollar pushing higher after Q1 rebalancing.
  • Bearish engulfing candle being formed.

Gold Struggling to Push Higher

Gold slumped Tuesday, prompted by a report that the Bank of Russia had suspended buying gold in the domestic market, putting bears back in control of the market. Various reports suggest that Russia has bought more than 40 billionUS dollars’ worth of gold in the last five years as it looks to diversify its reserves away from the US dollar. The price of gold hit a one-week low of $1,567/oz. on Tuesday before rebounding marginally later in the session. Volatility in the US dollar yesterday ahead of Q1 portfolio rebalancing added extra volatility into the mix, before the greenback picked up another safe-haven bid, adding downward pressure on gold.

The daily chart shows gold currently oscillating between two Fibonacci retracements levels – 61.8% retracement at $1,607/0z. and 50% retracement at $1,577/oz. A further bearish set-up is building with Tuesday’s range showing a bearish engulfing candle holding sway. Gold is also moving between the 20- and 50-dmas. To break the engulfing candle, gold needs to trade and close above $1,620/oz. which is looking increasingly unlikely as things stand. The precious metal may find a bid if risk-assets get sold-off on heightened coronavirus fears. Volatility remains high, using the ATR indicator, while the market is neither oversold or overbought.

Strong risk management is a prerequisite when trading gold in these highly volatile times and traders should consider their trading size and stop-losses very carefully.

Becoming a Better Trader – Principles of Risk Management (Videos)

Gold Daily Price Chart (August 2019 – April 1, 2020)

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Rebound Struggles as Bearish Chart Formation Builds

Trading the Gold-Silver Ratio: Strategies and Tips

What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.