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USD/CAD Price Weakens Further Ahead of Crucial US Jobs Release

USD/CAD Price Weakens Further Ahead of Crucial US Jobs Release

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist
What's on this page

USD/CAD Price, News and Analysis:

  • Canadian dollar continues to retrace recent sell-off against the US dollar.
  • US weekly initial jobless claims in the spotlight.
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USD/CAD Traders Wait for Key US Data Print

Today’s US initial jobless claims (March 21) will be the first hard data print to show the affects of the coronavirus on the US jobs market. The US Department of Labor report shows the weekly claims for unemployment benefits filed by unemployed individuals with state agencies. This week’s release is expected to show claims soar into seven-figure territory, compared to 281k last week. The median expectation is around 1.5 million claims with one investment bank suggesting the number may be as high as four million, an unprecedented number in US history.

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While unemployment is fully expected to rise over the next few weeks, the figure will have an impact on the US dollar in the short-term. The greenback has been sold-off recently after the massive liquidity measures taken recently by the Federal Reserve and the government, with President Trump throwing everything at the economy to counter-act the effects of the coronavirus.

The daily chart highlights the short-term weakness of USD/CAD as well as the medium-strength of the pair. Bullish sentiment is backed-up by all three moving-averages with a ‘golden-cross’ – 50-dm moving through the 200-dma – made at the start of March. The pair have also moved out of overbought territory using the ATR indicator. Bearish short-term price action can be seen by the four consecutive daily lower highs, while the break below Friday’s 1.4148 low adds momentum to this move. The ongoing extreme volatility in the market makes accurate placement of support levels difficult, with little strength seen before the 1.3960 to 1.400 zone, and even that may fragile if today’s release nears the most pessimistic of expectations.

USD/CAD Daily Price Chart (September 2019 – March 26, 2020)

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Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on USD/CAD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.