News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • US equities back to record highs, but inflation concerns remain. FTSE eyeing EU-UK spat. Get your weekly equities outlook from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/W5TUhVJ1YZ https://t.co/tQdkW5ysQD
  • What are the Market cycles? How are currencies impacted in these cycles? How can these cycles impact forex trading patterns? Find out here: https://t.co/ckr2fUOWqW https://t.co/rc3wLhm8Bn
  • Support and resistance are the cornerstone of technical analysis, making it the foundation that you build your knowledge on. Build a stronger foundation here: https://t.co/yXLaRpl90I https://t.co/t1vWdPFotC
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here: https://t.co/J8WZ1JYXnX https://t.co/4mDGc8Bfd5
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/7Yd5Tzua0d
  • Do you know the difference between investing and trading? Because while the goal might seem the same, they're very different things . Learn more here.https://t.co/fG6fNEPj9q https://t.co/A0W3CA5EWh
  • The Canadian Dollar remains supported amid elevated crude oil prices. Don’t be surprised if the Bank of Canada disappoints aggressive hawkish expectations. Earnings season is a wildcard. Get your weekly Loonie forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/iyb5OmW2S4 https://t.co/Oh35VUg9Gr
  • Rather than focusing on earning a specific number of pips per day, traders need to focus on what can be controlled. In trading terms this relates to following a strategy perfectly, with no emotion or hesitation. Learn more here: https://t.co/6ZH026QLRN https://t.co/jQ9HH9KuWy
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here: https://t.co/Blrl0uF2Ct https://t.co/VXiNCuR3bF
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/9SC4I69oi7
EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT Report

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT Report

Justin McQueen, Strategist

US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, COT Report –Analysis

The Predictive Power of the COT Report

How to Read the CFTC Report

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT Report

Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to Mar 17th, released Mar 20th)

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind

In the week to March 17th, CFTC data highlights that investors went net short on the US Dollar for the first time since June 2018. The continued unwind in Euro shorts had been the primary driver, of which market participants are now bullish for the first time since September 2018. However, as investors make a dash for cashamid the elevated volatility prompting widespread panic selling, now looks to be the wrong time to be bearish on the greenback.

Net bullish bets on the Japanese Yen picked up as investors continued to pare back gross shorts. However, while risk sentiment has deteriorated significantly, the Yen has failed to benefit in recent times, which we feel is largely to do with the funding squeeze of dollars amid the notable widening in cross-currency basis (Xccy Basis Swaps), which had been its widest since the global financial crisis, highlighting dollar shortage concerns (increased costs to short dollars). That said, with the Fed opening USD swap lines with several central banks, USD/JPY may trend lower in the short-term.

Despite the sharp depreciation in the Pound, investors continue to remain net long with gross shorts picking up ever so slightly. Consequently, we see continued risks to the downside for the Pound, where heightened uncertainty could see EUR/GBP head towards 0.95. Elsewhere, the Canadian Dollar saw a slight increase in net shorts of $533mln as the Loonie suffers from the drop in both risk appetite and oil prices. We are also cognizant of the fact that the Bank of Canada have the highest interest rates in the G10 (0.75%), therefore downside pressure on the currency can extend as the central bank looks to ease monetary policy further.

Across the antipodeans, the Australian Dollar saw gross shorts aggressively reduced, while the New Zealand Dollar remains the most shorted currency with net shorts at 45% (adjusted for open interest).

US Dollar | Flipped to Net Short for the First Time Since June 2018

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT Report

EUR/USD | Shorts Aggressively Unwind

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT ReportEUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT Report

GBP/USD | Sterling Bulls At Risk

gbpusdEUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT Report

USD/JPY | Yen Underperforms Stems for Dollar Shortage Concerns

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT ReportEUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT Report

USD/CHF | SNB Continues to Intervene

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT ReportEUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT Report

USD/CAD | Canadian Dollar Pressured by Plunging Oil Prices

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT ReportEUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT Report

AUD/USD | Unwind in Bearish Bets

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT ReportEUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT Report

NZD/USD | Most Shorted G10 Currency

EUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT ReportEUR/USD Shorts Unwind, Wrong Time to be Bearish on US Dollar - COT Report

For a more in-depth analysis on FX, check out the FX Forecast

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES