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Euro Struggles to Hold EUR/USD 1.1000 Against a Rampant US Dollar

Euro Struggles to Hold EUR/USD 1.1000 Against a Rampant US Dollar

2020-03-18 12:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
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EUR/USD Price, News and Analysis:

  • ECB needs to act again and fast.
  • EUR/USD is holding around 1.1000 for now.

EUR/USD – Hit Lower by a Range of Drivers.

The ECB is going to have to come up with another round of monetary easing to help build confidence in the single-currency and quickly as the coronavirus shuts down swathes of member states. ECB President Lagarde’s recent policy announcement was seen at the time as too little and now the central bank must come back with more to help the single-block. There has been talk, not verified, that some member stated are looking at fiscal measures to shore up their economies. While the ECB stay quiet, the single currency is likely to weaken further.

The US on the other hand are now going all-in, introducing further massive liquidity measures and opening swap lines, and suggesting a $1,000 money drop to most of the population, to try and keep the economy from falling to far into negative territory. The US dollar basket (DXY) is now trading at highs last seen in April 2017. Global central banks are acting increasingly quickly, leaving traders at risk, as volatility spikes ever higher.

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EUR/USD is attempting another break lower, back below 1.0950, which would leave 1.0777 as the near-term target. The CCI indicator is not yet in oversold territory, while volatility has ramped up to levels last seen over a year ago, leaving further room to fall. Any rebound higher will likely be seen as another opportunity to sell the pair, unless the central bank can restore confidence in the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (September 2019 – March 18, 2020)

euro falling heavily against the us dollar

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EUR/USD BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 20% -6% 6%
Weekly 62% 8% 32%
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Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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