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S&P 500, DAX, Oil Outlook & More Amidst Global Rout

S&P 500, DAX, Oil Outlook & More Amidst Global Rout

Paul Robinson, Strategist

The US stock market bounced hard yesterday, but that may be all it was. Monday’s rout rolled into a recovery on Tuesday morning, faded, and then finished the day on a powerful note. It may have been a very short-term double bottom that could lead to a gap-fill in the cash index up to 2972. At the time of this writing the futures are off, but if they can fill today’s gap then the market could be bulled up to that gap-fill from the weekend.

However, if the gap today turns into another down day, then the two-day double-bottom lows at 2734 look likely to break and lead to series of declines. Generally, the feeling is that whether we bounce some more or head lower again immediately, the 2020 stock rout looks likely, given the circumstances, to be more powerful than the 2018, -20% iteration. With that said, exceeding -20% off the highs, and perhaps by a fairly wide margin, looks to be well in the realm of possibility.

S&P 500 Cash Index Hourly Chart (levels to watch)

S&P 500 cash index

S&P 500 Chart by TradingView

The DAX is showing little life right now as it sits barely off yesterday’s low. It is clearly weaker than the US markets, that has been the case for some time, but it really shows through during times like this. There is support, however, to watch on further selling via the December 2019 low at 10279.

DAX Daily Chart (December 2109 lows look next)

DAX daily chart

DAX Chart by TradingView

Oil was sabotaged on Friday and Monday, bringing the 2016 lows into play a lot sooner than anyone could have expected. WTI came pretty close to the 25.75 low, but not quite. There may be a bit more recovery in oil, but it is anticipated that whatever strength there will be put to the test before this cycle is finished. For now, in wait-and-see mode to see if a congestion pattern can form for another short-term push to the downside.

Crude Oil Daily Chart (may bounce but then test and possibly break 2016 lows)

Crude oil daily chart

Crude Oil Chart by TradingView

To see all the charts we looked at, check out the video above…

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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