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EUR/USD Price Soars as US Bond Yields Crumble to Record Lows

EUR/USD Price Soars as US Bond Yields Crumble to Record Lows

2020-03-06 11:15:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
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EUR/USD Price, News and Charts

  • EUR/USD eyes 1.1300 and above.
  • 10-year US Treasury yields hit a fresh all-time low.

EUR/USD Breakout Continues as US Treasury Yields Collapse

The US dollar continues its recent freefall against a range of G7 currencies with EUR/USD now looking to break above 1.1300 and beyond. This week’s emergency 50 basis point Fed interest rate cut pulled the rug from under the greenback as markets decided that the move was not enough. Markets have now fully priced in a 25bp rate cut at the March 17-18 FOMC meeting and a 50bp cut is nearly fully priced in. US Treasury yields continue to slump with the 10-year now offering just 73 basis points - a record low - while the 30-year UST offers a miserly 1.32%. Bond yields fall as prices rise.

US Dollar Basket Daily Price Chart (May 2019 – March 6, 2020)

US Dollar Value Falls Sharply

We looked at EUR/USD on Thursday and suggested that a move to the December 31 high around 1.1239 looked imminent and this level has now been breached and convincingly.

Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD ‘V-shaped’ Recovery Nears Completion

The recent CoT report showed that EUR short positions had grown over the week, and it is likely the recent spike higher in Euro against the US dollar are these shorts now rushing to cover their positions.

EUR/USD is now looking for its next upside target with little in the way of resistance ahead of 1.1412. The latest move has also negated the run of lower highs on the chart, another positive for EUR/USD bulls. There is a potential roadblock for higher prices later today with the February US Jobs Report scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT, an event that normally sparks US dollar volatility and movement. Market expectations are for 175k new jobs to have been created in the month, compared to 225k in January, and a number today nearer 200k may stem the US dollar sell-off in the short-term. A miss to the downside may well extend US dollar losses going into the weekend.

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EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (June 2019 – March 6, 2020)

Chart showing EUR/USD moving sharply higher
EUR/USD BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 11% 1% 7%
Weekly 74% -32% 9%
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What is your view on EUR/USD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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