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British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP/USD at Risk with Volatility on the Rise

British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP/USD at Risk with Volatility on the Rise

Justin McQueen, Analyst

GBP/USD Analysis and Talking Points

  • GBP/USD Gains to be Capped
  • UK/EU Trade Talks to Elevate GBP Volatility
  • GBP/USD Bulls May be Caught Offside

GBP/USD Gains to be Capped

Today, the UK is due to release its mandate for the upcoming trade talks with the EU. However, as to be expected differences will be noted with the UK likely to refuse close alignment, which is likely to set up a clash with the EU. As such, upside in the Pound are likely to be capped and with speculative data (COT report) highlighting that traders are net long, risks are asymmetrically tilted to the downside.

UK/EU Trade Talks to Elevate GBP Volatility

UK Stance

EU Stance

No aligment over regulation

Level playing field

No extension of transition period

Willing to have extension depending on the UK's fullfilment of other obligations

Control over fisheries

Current equal access to fishing waters should be maintained

Control over immigration

No free movement of goods and services without the free movement of people

GBP/USD MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 4% 8% 6%
Weekly 32% -33% -12%
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GBP/USD Bulls May be Caught Offside

British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP/USD at Risk with Volatility on the Rise

Source: Refinitiv, CFTC, DailyFX

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Once again, GBP/USD continues to hold the 1.29 handle, however, with a lack of buying interest above 1.3000, the pair has maintained its narrow range. Selling likely to extend on a break below support at 1.2882 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

GBP/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP/USD at Risk with Volatility on the Rise

Source: IG Charts

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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