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USD/MXN - Mexican Peso at Risk vs US Dollar, Peso Bulls Near Record

USD/MXN - Mexican Peso at Risk vs US Dollar, Peso Bulls Near Record

2020-02-26 12:00:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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USD/MXN Analysis and Talking Points

  • USD/MXN | Coronavirus Hits Latin America
  • Mexico’s Recession Prolonged
  • Mexican Peso at Risk of Long Liquidation
  • USD/MXN Technical Levels

USD/MXN | Coronavirus Hits Latin America

Until the backend of last week, the Mexican Peso had seemed somewhat insulated from the growing fears regarding the coronavirus. However, as the spread of the virus continues with reports now suggesting that it has reached Latin America (coronavirus case in Brazil), risks are growing to the downside for the Peso as safe-haven flows are likely to boost USD/MXN, particularly with the fall out in global equities weighing on the EM complex.

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Mexico’s Recession Prolonged

On the domestic front, yesterday’s Q4 GDP data, which showed a contraction of 0.5%, confirmed the extension of Mexico’s mild recession. In turn, with the coronavirus also expected to weigh on activity growth, Banxico may be forced to continue easing monetary policy and thus keep MXN under pressure.

Mexican Economy in Recession

Mexican Peso at Risk of Long Liquidation

It is also prudent to be cognizant of the fact that investors are notably bullish on the Mexican Peso with both non-commercials and asset managers holding near record number of net long positions. As such, the risks are asymmetrically tilted to the downside for the Peso, which remains vulnerable to liquidating longs as contagion of coronavirus threatens emerging markets.

USD/MXN - Mexican Peso at Risk vs US Dollar, Peso Bulls Near RecordInvestors Hold Near Record Longs in Mexican Peso

USD/MXN Technical Levels

The recent upside in USD/MXN has been curbed by the 200DMA (19.21), which also marks today’s high. However, given the deterioration in risk sentiment USD/MXN remains tilted to the upside where a break above the 200DMA could see an extension towards 19.60. On the downside, it would take a close below 19.80 (100DMA) to resume the bear trend.

USD/MXN Price Chart: Daily Time Frame

Mexican Peso Weakens Against US Dollar

Source: IG Charts

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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