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Euro Price Analysis: EUR/USD May be Oversold in The Short-Term

Euro Price Analysis: EUR/USD May be Oversold in The Short-Term

2020-02-20 10:30:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
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EUR/USD Price, News and Analysis:

  • Technical target achieved – Where next for EUR/USD?
  • German and Euro-Zone PMI data on Friday will direct the next move in the pair.

EUR/USD Falls to Levels Last Seen in April 2017

The latest decline in EUR/USD saw the pair hit a fresh multi-year low and fill a technical gap on the chart. The gap on the weekly chart between the top of the high of the April 17 candle (1.0777) and the low of the April 24 candle (1.0820) was made when Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the French Presidential election and has long been a target for EUR/USD bears. While this may give the Euro a short-term reprieve against the resurgent US dollar, Friday’s Euro-Zone and German PMI data may see the pair come renewed downside pressure. Euro-Zone and German data released post-January PMIshas turned sharply lower and tomorrow’s PMIs may struggle to match market expectations, putting further downside pressure on the pair.

Friday – February 21, 2020 -- French, German and Euro-Zone PMI Releases

French, German and Euro-Zone PMI data

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EUR/USD currently trades either side of 1.0800 and has lost nearly 450 pips since the December 31 high at 1.1240. The sell-off accelerated in February and the weekly chart shows the pair now are heavily oversold, using the CCI indicator. While this may trim further losses, the likelihood of further weak data from the single-block will continue to weaken the Euro. The only respite for the pair will come from the US dollar. The value of the greenback continues to soar and currently trades at a nine-month high. This USD-strength will annoy President Trump who continues to argue for a weaker US dollar. Ongoing trade discussions with China and the EU are likely to become more fraught as POTUS believes both are allowing their currencies to slide lower to help boost their export-orientated economies at the expense of the US.

EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart (April 2016 – February 20, 2020)

Eur/USD weekly price chart showing euro falls
EUR/USD BEARISH
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Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 20% -6% 6%
Weekly 62% 8% 32%
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Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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