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EUR/GBP Price Action Likely to be Driven German ZEW, UK Jobs Release

EUR/GBP Price Action Likely to be Driven German ZEW, UK Jobs Release

Nick Cawley, Strategist

German, UK Data and Sterling (GBP) Prices and Analysis:

  • ZEW indicator of economic sentiment in Germany currently at a July 2015 high.
  • EUR/GBP consolidating just above multi-year horizontal support.

EUR/GBPSell-Off Stalls for Now

EUR/GBP touched a two-month low at the end of last week and came within 20 pips of levels last seen in June 2016. The British Pound came back into favor with investors and pushed higher through most of the week, while the Euro remained friendless and continued its slide lower. The single currency has been hurt in recent weeks by weak economic data from Germany and the Euro-Zone, and with expectations growing of additional monetary loosening at the March ECB meeting, the euro has found it hard to defend any support levels.

The latest look at the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for February will be released on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT and needs to be closely watched by euro-traders. The January reading of 26.7 easily beat market expectations and was the highest level recorded since July 2015. German economic sentiment has changed sharply since this release with economic data pointing to a further slowdown. The market expectation for tomorrow’s reading is marginally lower at 22, and any larger downturn may put renewed pressure on the single-currency.

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Thirty minutes before the German sentiment release, the latest UK jobs and earnings data will be released and these are expected to show unemployment unchanged at 3.8% while average weekly earnings are seen nudging a fraction lower. January’s labour market release from the ONS showed the UK employment rate at a record high of 76.3%, while the UK unemployment rate has been falling for the last six years and currently stands just above a four-decade low.

uk unemployment at record low chart

Traders positioned in or looking at EUR/GBP will need to watch both releases carefully. EUR/GBP remains weak and a break and close below the 0.8277 double low print in mid-December may open the way for further declines back to the July 2016 low around 0.8250 before 0.8120 comes into view. Resistance for the pair starts between 0.8380 and 0.8400 ahead of 0.8505. The daily chart looks oversold, using CCI, while any upside move will also run into resistance from the 20-dma, currently at 0.8425, and the 50-dma at 0.8480.

EUR/GBP Daily Price Chart (June 2019 – February 17, 2020)

eurgbp price falling
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Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 25% -3% 13%
Weekly -11% -4% -8%
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Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Sterling (GBP)– bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.