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Euro Price Outlook - EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Slumps Continue Unchecked

Euro Price Outlook - EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Slumps Continue Unchecked

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist

EUR/USD and EUR/GBP Price, News and Analysis:

  • The Euro’s heavy sell-off continues.
  • The March ECB meeting may see additional monetary policy loosening.

EUR/USD Price Battling Support

The single-currency keeps on moving lower across the board after recent economic data highlights ongoing weakness in the block’s economy. The charts show the Euro now hitting noted support levels with little in the way of a recovery seen. The next ECB in March can now considered ‘live’ with market expectations starting to build that the central bank may well loosen monetary policy further, or at least give increased guidance, to help prime the block’s struggling economy. This creeping realization is continuing to be priced into the Euro.

Friday’s initial look at Euro-Zone and German Q4 GDP data now becomes crucial to the short-term outlook for the Euro. Recent hard data from Germany has been weak, missing expectations by a wide margin. German Q4 q/q GDP is forecast unchanged at just 0.1% and a miss will weigh further on the currency.

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EUR/USD has fallen by 100 pips this month – high to low – and broke through the October 1 support level at 1.0879. Crucially the pair did not close or open below this level and currently traded either side of the multi-month low. The chart shows ongoing downward momentum although the pair are looking oversold in the short-term, using CCI at the bottom of the chart.

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EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (July 2019 – February 13, 2020)

euro falling against the us dollar
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -1% -3% -3%
Weekly -12% -4% -8%
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EUR/GBP currently traded at its lowest level in three months with the recent sell-off taking the pair below all three moving averages. If EUR/GBP breaks below 0.8277, then the pair will be back at levels last seen in June 2016.

EUR/GBP Daily Price Chart (June 2019 – February 13, 2020)

euro falling aginst the british pound

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD and EURGBP – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.