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EUR/USD Price Slumps Through Support Ahead of US Jobs Data, Chart Remains Weak

EUR/USD Price Slumps Through Support Ahead of US Jobs Data, Chart Remains Weak

2020-02-07 10:20:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist

EUR/USD Price, News and Analysis:

  • German industrial production data highlights economic weakness.
  • EURUSD takes out support and eyes multi-month lows.

EUR/USD Price Rattled by More Weak German Economic Data

German industrial production fell heavily in December, missing pessimistic market expectations. On a month-on-month prices production crashed to -3.5% against expectations 0f -0.2% and 1.2% in November, while annual nsa and wda production hit -6.8%, compared to a forecast of -3.7% and a prior month’s -2.5%. These numbers continue this week’s trend of poor German and Euro-Zone data and question the recent view that the Euro-Zone economy has bottomed out and may be turning higher.

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Treading on Thin Ice After Dismal German Data

For all important market data releases and events, see the DailyFX Economic Calendar

The latest US Jobs report is released at 13:30 GMT today and if the US dollar gets a further boost, EUR/USD is primed to attempt a break through the double low made in August at 1.0941. The US dollar remains strong, and at multi-month highs, with expectations that a NFP print above market expectations of 160k, is likely, especially after Wednesday’s ADP release which showed private sector hiring at a 4year+ high.

Live Data Coverage of US NFPs from 13:15 GMT on February 7 with DFX analyst Richard Dvorak

While this week’s price action has been one-way, markets do have a habit of throwing a spanner in the works and any NFP print around the 160k-170k may disappoint the market and prompt USD profit-taking ahead of the weekend. While the short-to medium-term trend looks set in EUR/USD, the oversold nature of the market, using CCI, may support the pair for now. And if EUR/USD continues to move lower, expect US President Trump to up the ante on US-EU trade talks in the near future, or double-down on criticism of the Fed and the current ‘high’ levels of US interest rates.

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EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (August – February 7, 2020)

EURUSD price slumps through chart support
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -28% 5% -5%
Weekly -15% 12% 5%
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Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.