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EUR/USD Price Analysis: Treading on Thin Ice After Dismal German Data

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Treading on Thin Ice After Dismal German Data

2020-02-06 10:30:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
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EUR/USD Price, News and Analysis:

  • German factory orders slump further in December
  • EURUSD nears important support but still retains a bid, for now.

EUR/USD Price – A Confirmed Break of Near-Term Support Could See the Pair Tumble

Recently released German factory orders data showed further evidence that growth in the euro-zone’s largest economy remains anemic and unlikely to change in the short-term. German order books fell to their lowest level in over a decade, with exports from the automobile sector falling by 13% last year.

German Factory Orders Slump

Today’s data follows on from yesterday’s euro-zone retail sales release that showed spending falling in December. The year-on-year rate fell to 1.3% from a prior month’s 2.3%, while the month-on-month rate fell to -1.6% from a prior 0.8%.

For all important market data releases and events, see the DailyFX Economic Calendar

EUR/USD continues to trade either side of 1.1000 in early turnover on a combination of euro weakness and US dollar strength. The US dollar basket (DXY) touched a fresh two-month high today, continuing the strong rally seen since the start of the year, after recent robust US data, including the recent private payrolls report (ADP) that showed 291,000 new jobs created in January, the largest gain in four years. While the correlation between the ADP figures and the NFP jobs report, out tomorrow, is not a given, there is a real chance that Friday’s figures could be a lot higher than current market expectations of 160k.

Live Data Coverage of US NFPs from 13:15 GMT on February 7 with DFX analyst Richard Dvorak

The daily EUR/USD chart shows the pair closing in on a support zone between 1.0981 and 1.0989 that has held since early-October 2019. Below here a double bottom at 1.0926, made on September 3 and 12, stands out before the October 1 low at 1.0879 comes into play. Below here the pair would be back at levels last seen in May 2017. Saying this, there is an ongoing struggle in play around the 1.1000 level, with sellers unable to force the move lower, despite a conducive backdrop. It may well be that tomorrow’s NFP report will be catalyst for the next move in EUR/USD.

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EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (June – February 6, 2020)

EUR/USD continues to fall
EUR/USD BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 27% -11% -1%
Weekly -1% -10% -7%
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Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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