News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here:
  • Cyclical and non-cyclical stocks can help diversify a trader’s equity portfolio. Get your guide to understanding these stocks here:
  • Beautifully put.
  • Gold prices could claw back lost ground ahead of the non-farm payrolls report for November, buoyed by a dovish FOMC, falling real yields and rising inflation expectations. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here:
  • Rather than focusing on earning a specific number of pips per day, traders need to focus on what can be controlled. In trading terms this relates to following a strategy perfectly, with no emotion or hesitation. Learn more here:
  • That if you’re offended by what someone says on Twitter and that ruins your day, you live an extremely lucky life to be able to have that be your biggest problem for the day.
  • Myth or fact? One thing is for sure, there are a lot of misconceptions about trading. Knowing the difference between common trading myths and the reality is essential to long-term success. Find out about these 'myths' here:
  • Moving averages are extremely popular due to its easy-to-use nature and multitude of uses when trading. What are some popular moving averages and how can you use them? Find out:
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here:
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY Bounce Off Support - What's Next?

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY Bounce Off Support - What's Next?

2020-02-04 19:30:00
Peter Hanks, Analyst

Australian Dollar Outlook:

  • AUD/USD bounced off horizontal support around 0.6678 after falling precipitously in January
  • Now the pair will have to retake a descending band that has kept price contained in the past
  • Meanwhile, AUD/JPY displayed the pair’s sensitivity to risk trends as it posted a massive daily move and reclaimed an important trendline

AUD/USD Forecast: Resistance in Focus

AUD/USD rallied higher on Tuesday as risk appetite roared and an RBA rate decision saw the central bank keep rates steady. In conjunction with fundamental improvements, the Australian Dollar enjoyed a boost from technical support that resides around the 0.6678 level and has helped to spark reversals in the past. The confluence of bullish catalysts worked to drive AUD/USD into a descending band of resistance that was offering support just last week. Failing to keep the pair afloat then, can it keep price under wraps now?

AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (December 2018 – February 2020)

australian dollar forecast, audusd

Looking to the technical landscape, RSI reveals AUD/USD is still near oversold territory and the horizontal support beneath has displayed its influence yet again. Nevertheless, coronavirus fears still exist and global growth forecasts have been adjusted lower in response.

Given the Australian Dollar’s ties to global - particularly Chinese - growth projections and the performances of commodities like crude oil and copper is a worrying sign as their declines have not yet leveled off. With that in mind, continued weakness may be in store for AUD/USD. Further, soaring long exposure reflected in IGCS data suggests Australian Dollar strength may be short lived.

Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -20% -4% -9%
Weekly 1% 8% 6%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

In the meantime, further improvements in risk appetite could propel AUD/USD through nearby resistance until subsequent barriers around 0.6827 and 0.6864 look to halt further gains. Should AUD press lower and breach 0.6678, support becomes alarmingly sparse – the pair trades near an 11-year low – which could open the door to deeper losses. As price action develops, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and analysis.

AUD/JPY Forecast

Shifting focus to AUD/JPY, price action reveals the influence of broader risk sentiment on the pair. Often viewed as being on opposite sides of the risk spectrum in the foreign exchange market, Tuesday’s risk resurgence is reflected in the largest daily candle for the pair since December 11, 2019. Consequently, AUD/JPY managed to reclaim the descending trendline from the December 2018 highs and could look to probe the 200-day simple moving average and horizontal resistance around 74 if risk appetite continues.

AUD/JPY Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (December 2018 – February 2020)

australian dollar forecast, audjpy

Retail traders are similarly confident AUD/JPY has established a bottom for the time being and are suspecting a rally higher. Since we typically view such sentiment as a bearish indicator, it may suggest AUD/JPY will continue lower in the days ahead – despite the newfound strength. Should it reverse lower again, support will likely reside at the 72.48 and 71.88 levels before subsequent assistance can come into play around 70.

Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 2% -11% -7%
Weekly -14% 27% 10%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.